Reasons to be optimistic

After a summer of swirling rumors, NHL fans had their worst fears confirmed—a 2012 NHL lockout. However, there are numerous factors suggesting that an NHL season will almost certainly resume before the 2012 Winter Classic. The main issue for the current lockout circulates around the 57 percent of NHL revenue that the players currently make. NHL Commissioner, Gary Bettman, wants this number to drop to 46 percent, which would increase the owners' share of the revenue from 43% to 54%. Bettman is hopping on the lockout bandwagon after seeing both the NBA and the NFL recently go into lockouts. he players, represented by the NHLPA and its leader Donald Fehr, do not feel that they should have to endure another pay cut. For the third lockout in 20 years, all of which have transpired during Bettman’s time as commissioner, the players and the owners will push and pull to come to terms. However, there is more on the table during this lockout than either of the previous two—the NHL cannot afford to hold out.

“In two other leagues, the N.B.A. and the N.F.L., their players have recognized that in these economic times, there is a need to retrench,” Bettman said.

“From the players’ standpoint, it’s the owners’ insistence that after seven years of record revenues and massive concessions the last time, they want the players to take another significant, absolute rollback in their compensation,” Fehr said.


Here are 5 reasons to be confident the 2012-13 season will resume before the start of the 2013 Winter Classic.
1 - Wayne Gretzky is confident it wont last for long.
2 - This is not 2004
3 - There is more money available from the recently signed TV deal.
4 - There has been consistent scheduling of formal talks.
5 - The Winter Classic is seen as being important enough to still go ahead and end the feud.

The 2004 lockout was a vicious battle between the players and the owners with many difficult issues at its core. The animosity that existed in 2004 is absent from the current lockout and it should be a lot easier for the two sides to come to an understanding. The main issue of 2004 was a salary cap. Bettman and the owners demanded there be a $35 million salary cap and “cost certainty,” which would give the players a 50 percent share of league revenue. ob Goodenow, the leader of the NHLPA at the time, was unwilling to give in to Bettman’s salary cap request and had warned players to prepare for the possibility of a two-season lockout. Goodenow felt that once the salary cap was officially put into place, owners would continue to bully the players into giving up more and more of their pay—hence, the 2012 lockout.

"The bottom line is, if they want a hard (salary) cap, we'll sit out for the rest of our lives,” said Bryan McCabe, former players’ union representative and defenseman for the Toronto Maple Leafs, in 2004.

As of right now, any owners who speak publicly about the lockout can be fined by the NHL. Such action has already been taken against Detroit Red Wings Senior Vice President Jim Devellano.

"The owners can basically be viewed as the ranch, and the players, and me included, are the cattle," said Devellano. "The owners own the ranch and allow the players to eat there. That's the way it's always been and that the way it will be forever. And the owners simply aren't going to let a union push them around. It's not going to happen."

TSN reports that Devellano’s fine was in the range of $250,000. So far, this is the only major public statement made by an owner; nothing in comparison to some of 2004’s remarks. During the 2004 lockout, former Philadelphia Flyers owner, Ed Snider, had much harsher words to say, specifically toward NHLPA leader Bob Goodenow:

“I might jump over the table and choke him to death. That would not be good. That’s why they keep me out of the negotiations,” said Snider.

Snider was not reprimanded for his comments about Goodenow. Currently, there is still respect between the two sides, despite their differing opinions—this is subject to change as the lockout drags on. The NHL released a report during the 2004 lockout by former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commissioner, Arthur Levitt, saying that the players received 71 percent of the league’s $1.9 billion revenue during the 2002-03 season. This was disputed by Goodenow, who countered by issuing his own report stating that there was $100 million of unreported hockey revenue that had been kept by four teams. There was much less transparency in the league’s funds in 2004 than there is now. Such accusations would be much harder to pull off in the current lockout.