As ESPN’s John Buccigross put it well today, both sides (NHL & NHLPA) already have betrayed our trust. There is real danger that the NHL has already suffered serious damage with its loyal fan base because of this utterly foolish lockout.
“I was talking with a serious fan today at the supermarket, and he said he’s done, he ain’t comin’ back…”
That’s the kind of stuff you read a lot from within the hockey media. “They might never recover from this…”
As the former Hollywood screenwriter William Goldman said about the movie business: nobody knows anything. I do believe there is some genuine uncertainty among all the main principals in the media, who don't want to come out and say there wil be a season this year. Just keep in mind: the parties are just too close on all the main issues to walk away from what would still be a lot of money to be had the rest of a season. Too many owners want to play, not at the price of capitulating to the players on the rest of their wish list, the same goes in reverse for the players’ side, but they do want games played and they’re too close.
There have been several good takes on the situation of late, including one from Bill Simmons at ESPN. A good line from the piece: “It’s the ultimate team sport, and really, that’s the best thing about hockey — there’s a guaranteed level of entertainment night after night after night that transcends star power.”
As Simmons went on to point out, hockey players don’t have the star-power leverage in the U.S. that those in the NBA and NFL enjoyed in their most recent lockouts – and yet even they still were forced to take 50-50 deals when all was said and done. If NHL players think they are worth more than 50 percent of overall revenue, worth more in the U.S. (where 23 of the league’s 30 teams reside) than NBA and NFL players, then they are simply not in the reality-based community.
What the NHLPA don’t want to admit is, they made a killing in the CBA from 2005-12. Their average salaries rose from $1.4 million to about $2.4 million. Guys like David Jones got to become unrestricted free agents by age 28 and land themselves four-year, $16 million contracts. Zach Parise and Ryan Suter – two very good but not great players, with zero Stanley Cups between them – got $98 million EACH on the free-agent market this summer from Minnesota. Guys like Paul Stastny and Drew Doughty and Anze Kopitar and tons of other guys coming out of their first contracts made an absolute killing on their second deals, thanks to the reduction in age of UFA eligibility from 31 to 27 (teams wanted to keep them off the UFA market, so they were forced to give them rich, long-term deals after their first contracts expired) and because of strong increases every year in the salary cap ceiling (and, just as important and probably more so – the vast increase in the salary cap floor). A lot of people forget: the NHLPA voted twice to extend the CBA, based on their right to do so in original contract language. They loved the CBA. And it’s why they are fighting so hard to keep as much of it in place as they can.
NHL commissioner Gary Bettman, meanwhile, is trying to close all the loopholes he didn’t foresee being such a problem. Probably the biggest in contract term length. It truly is hard to believe the owners/Bettman didn’t see that having no limits on contract term lengths would become such a problem. But it is precisely why the league became littered with too many deals like the 10-12-15-year contracts to guys like Rick DiPietro, Marian Hossa, Suter, Parise etc. You can’t blame players for saying “Hey, they are the ones who wanted that last CBA so bad, they’re the ones who said it was a great deal for them, now they want to take it all back and we’re not going to let them”, etc.
If I was a player, I’d know when to cut my losses and cut a deal, and I think, it’s that time. I would also be pretty happy with how things have gone with Don Fehr as leader. Their first offer was 43 percent. Now it’s 50. The revenue-sharing offer from the league is higher than it was. Arbitration was on the table before, now it’s off. At first, they weren’t offered anything as part of a “make whole” provision, but now they have an offer to have that money come out of the owners’ pockets, plus interest. Their decision to keep sitting back and fielding offers has gotten them better offers. That’s surely a win.
It might not be everything they wanted, but they have gotten “concessions” in recent weeks. I really dont think they’ll get much more than this? I suspect they don’t either. Don Fehr is a bit of a different bird altogether. To me, he’s the guy I’m most worried about in this final endgame. As TSN’s Bob McKenzie nicely put it, his “passive-aggressive” demeanor is a tough one to read, for everybody. But Fehr would be a fool to believe the offer will/could get much better, and I don’t think he’s a fool.
For Bettman and the owners? They’ll still get a reduction in payouts from 57 to 50 percent. That’s a win! And they’ll almost certainly get an increase in the age of unrestricted free agency. If not that, almost certainly a tightening of entry-level contract terms. Maybe both. Another win.
I don’t expect a deal to be announced Wednesday, after that day’s crucial meetings in New York. I think we’ll see one final stand-off from each other, and then one last meeting soon. But hopefully by then, we’ll finally see a deal. We could even start the season as early as Sat, Dec 15. What a nice Christmas present that would be for Hockey fans
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