Thursday 28 September 2017

Dallas Stars - 2017-18 Season Preview


The Dallas Stars have been one of the most active teams this offseason after a disappointing 2016-17 season. After finishing 34-37-11 (79 points) and failing to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the second time in three seasons, the Stars announced April 9 they were not retaining coach Lindy Ruff, who had an expiring contract. Four days later, they hired Ken Hitchcock, who coached Dallas from 1995-2002 and won the Stanley Cup in 1999, to replace Ruff. 
Hitchcock is a defense-oriented coach, and the Stars went about revamping the team in that manner.
First, they acquired pending unrestricted free agent goalie Ben Bishop in a trade from the Los Angeles Kings on May 9 and signed the two-time Vezina Trophy finalist to a six-year, $29.5 million contract three days later.  
"Ben Bishop really got everything rolling for us," general manager Jim Nill said. "He had his no-trade clause and wanted to come to Dallas. He was confident in what we were doing, and that really sent a message that other players we went after picked up on." 
The Stars traded a second-round pick in the 2020 NHL Draft and goalie prospect Dylan Ferguson to the Vegas Golden Knights on June 26 for defenseman Marc Methot, who played the past five seasons for the Ottawa Senators but was left exposed in the NHL Expansion Draft. 
Dallas then signed unrestricted free agent forwards Martin Hanzal and Alexander Radulov. Hanzal, who had 39 points (20 goals, 19 assists) in 71 games for the Arizona Coyotes and Minnesota Wild last season, signed a three-year, $14.25 million contract July 1, and Radulov signed a five-year, $31.25 million contract July 3 after he had 54 points (18 goals, 36 assists) in 76 games for the Montreal Canadiens. 
The Stars also signed unrestricted free agent forward Tyler Pitlick to a three-year, $3 million contract July 1. The 25-year-old tore the ACL in his left knee Dec. 19 while playing for the Edmonton Oilers and missed rest of the season. 
Dallas lost some key players. Forwards Patrick Sharp (Chicago Blackhawks) and Ales Hemsky (Canadiens) left in free agency, and forward Cody Eakin was selected by the Golden Knights in the expansion draft. The Stars bought out the final season of Antti Niemi's three-year contract, leaving a likely goalie tandem of Bishop and Kari Lehtonen. 
Methot has a history of playing with offense-minded defensemen after being mostly paired with Erik Karlsson in his five seasons in Ottawa, and he could fit well with John Klingberg on the top pair for Dallas. The Stars also are hoping for improved play from defensemen Esa Lindell and Stephen Johns, and rookie defenseman Julius Honka has caused excitement within the organization. 
"I think it's a good group," Methot said. "We've got a good mix of the veterans and the young guys. I think the young guys can learn something from the older ones, and us older guys will prove we can still keep up and skate with them." 
Offensively, the Stars are hoping to return to their form in 2015-16, when their 265 goals led the NHL. 
Left wing Jamie Benn is expected to enter training camp healthy for the first time since 2014-15, when he won the Art Ross Trophy as the NHL leading scorer, and center Tyler Seguin reportedly has had a strong recovery from offseason shoulder surgery. 
Hitchcock has made it clear he wants Seguin to be the No. 1 center after he spent most of last season on the wing, and adding Radulov gives Dallas potential for one of the most dangerous top lines in the Western Conference. 
Depth scoring could be a strength. Though the Stars struggled last season, younger forwards like Radek Faksa, 23, Devin Shore, 23, and Brett Ritchie, 24, each had an opportunity to step into a larger role. Dallas also may have forward Mattias Janmark back after he missed last season with a genetic knee disorder. 
The offseason has created high expectations, and the Stars are hoping to celebrate their 25th anniversary season in Dallas with a return to the playoffs.



1. CoachingAfter the Dallas Stars finished with a .482 points percentage last season, their lowest since 1995-96 (.402), they hired coach Ken Hitchcock on April 13. Hitchcock coached the Stars from 1995-02.
There is a way to establish how valuable Hitchcock can be for the Stars. By comparing how a coach's team has performed in terms of points in the standings and then subtracting its statistical expectations, a coach's impact can be measured reliably in the long term. As explained in my 2013 book "Hockey Abstract," these expectations can be set in a variety of ways, most simply by taking the team's points from the previous season regressed 35 percent toward the NHL average.
Using this approach, Hitchcock has added an average of 5.2 points per season to the standings, third in the League behind Bruce Boudreau of the Minnesota Wild (9.8) and Jon Cooper of the Tampa Bay Lightning (5.9).
The Stars penalty kill was last in the NHL last season at 73.9 percent, down from 82.3 percent in 2015-16 (10th in the League). It also was the lowest percentage for the Stars/Minnesota North Stars franchise since 1977-78, when the North Stars killed 72.0 percent of their penalties.
The arrival of several experienced penalty-killers, among them defenseman Marc Methot and forwards Martin Hanzal and Brian Flynn, will help. But the major problem was a team save percentage of .815 in shorthanded situations, the worst in the League, according to Natural Stat Trick.
To help fix the issue, the Stars acquired goalie Ben Bishop in a trade from the Los Angeles Kings on May 9 and signed him to a six-year, $29.5 million contract three days later. Bishop's .897 career shorthanded save percentage ranks fifth among the 65 active NHL goalies who have played at least 50 games.
3. Goalie support
Bishop joins goalie Kari Lehtonen, who is entering his ninth season with the Stars. The most interesting commonality between Bishop and Lehtonen is each has benefited from a lot of goal support.
A goaltender's offensive support is calculated as the average number of goals his team scores in games he started. By going through NHL game files, I calculated that the Stars averaged 3.21 goals per game when Lehtonen was in net over the past three seasons, which ranks second to Matt Murray of the Pittsburgh Penguins (3.32). Bishop ranks third with 3.03.


In the past six months, the Dallas Stars have beefed up their prospect system. 
It started prior to the NHL Trade Deadline on March 1, when they traded forward Lauri Korpikoski to the Columbus Blue Jackets for defenseman prospect Dillon Heatherington. The Stars also signed defenseman Gavin Bayreuther, a highly touted free agent from St. Lawrence University, on March 15. 
At the 2017 NHL Draft, the Stars had three picks in the top 40 and came away with an impressive haul. Dallas took defenseman Miro Heiskanen with the No. 3 pick, and then made a trade with the Chicago Blackhawks to move up from No. 29 to No. 26 to select goalie Jake Oettinger. Early in the second round, Dallas took forward Jason Robertson, who was projected by many as a first-round selection, at No. 39.  
Here are the Stars' top five prospects:
1. Miro Heiskanen, D
How acquired: Selected with No. 3 pick in 2017 NHL Draft
Last season: HIFK (Liiga): 37 GP, 5-5-10
The smooth-skating Heiskanen, 18, is a solid two-way defenseman who played in Finland's top league as a 17-year-old. 
Heiskanen (6-foot, 170 pounds) effectively moves forwards away from his net and frustrates opponents with his stick work, often breaking up plays before they begin. He never panics offensively and has the confidence to carry the puck out of his own zone. Although Heiskanen will attend training camp, he likely will spend one more season in Finland. 
Projected NHL arrival: 2019-20
2. Julius Honka, D
How acquired: Selected with No. 14 pick in 2014 NHL Draft
Last season: Dallas: 16 GP, 1-4-5; Texas (AHL): 50 GP, 7-24-31
After three seasons in the American Hockey League, Honka is ready for full-time duty in the NHL. The 21-year-old made his NHL debut last season and is an offensive defenseman who may be the best skater in the Dallas prospect pool. 
Honka (5-11, 195) is creative and doesn't panic with the puck. He exudes confidence on the power play, and his game was seemingly built for 3-on-3 overtime. Fittingly, Honka scored his first NHL goal April 4 against the Arizona Coyotes in overtime. He needs to improve in the defensive zone, but the Stars are confident he will make major strides in coach Ken Hitchcock's system. 
Projected NHL arrival: This season
3. Denis Gurianov, F
How acquired: Selected with No. 12 pick in 2015 NHL Draft
Last season: Dallas: 1 GP, 0-0-0; Texas (AHL): 57 GP, 12-15-27
Gurianov made his AHL debut as a 19-year-old and matured as the season went along. He became more confident with his game, and when he faced his own peer group at the 2017 IIHF World Junior Championship, he was one of Russia's best forwards. 
Gurianov, 20, is a shifty forward with a heavy shot. He can create his own chances around the net but is a skilled passer who can set up his teammates. Last season, the Texas coaching staff was impressed with his work ethic and dedication to defense. Gurianov (6-3, 200) showed a willingness to hit and block shots, and he earned time on the penalty kill by the end of the season. 
Projected NHL arrival: Next season
4. Roope Hintz, F
How acquired: Selected with No. 49 pick in 2015 NHL Draft
Last season: HIFK (Liiga): 44 GP, 19-11-30
Hintz, 20, is a smart, playmaking forward who likes to create open space for his teammates. He had a slow start last season for HIFK but ended up with 30 points in 44 games before leading Liiga in playoff scoring with three goals and 11 assists in 14 games.
Hintz is expected to start his first season in North America in the AHL. The Stars will look to develop Hintz (6-3, 205) at center and will watch him closely to see how he reacts to a more physical game in the AHL. 
Projected NHL arrival: Next season
5. Riley Tufte, F
How acquired: Selected with No. 25 pick in 2016 NHL Draft
Last season: Minnesota-Duluth (NCAA): 37 GP, 9-7-16
Tufte had a difficult start to his college career. He was recovering from a broken wrist while making the jump from Blaine High School in Minnesota to the NCAA. He didn't score his first college point until January but finished the season with 16 points and helped Minnesota-Duluth reach the Division I national championship game.
A big, raw prospect (6-6, 210), Tufte has been growing into his game. He's a strong skater but needs to improve his overall quickness and agility in tight spaces. The 19-year-old goes hard to the net and is poised for a big sophomore season.
Projected NHL arrival: 2020-21



The Dallas Stars are hoping to reap the rewards of a busy offseason.
After failing to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Stars chose to not retain coach Lindy Ruff, who had completed his four-year contract, and brought back Ken Hitchcock, who coached Dallas from 1995-2002 and won the Stanley Cup in 1999.
The Stars solidified their goaltending by signing Ben Bishop to a six-year contract after acquiring him in a trade from the Los Angeles Kings on May 9. Dallas also acquired defenseman Marc Methot in a trade from the Vegas Golden Knights and signed forwards Alexander Radulov and Martin Hanzal in free agency. 
1. Can the Stars fix the penalty kill?

Dallas had the worst penalty kill in the NHL last season (73.9 percent). It was the lowest penalty-kill percentage in the NHL since the 1993-94 Ottawa Senators (73.3 percent). Adding Hanzal and Methot should help, and the addition of assistant coach Rick Wilson also will be a factor. As an assistant under Hitchcock, Wilson was the architect behind the Stars' consistent penalty kill in the late 1990s and more recently with the St. Louis Blues. The Stars also are expecting big things on the penalty kill from center Radek Faksa, who has said he could benefit and learn from Hanzal.
2. Who moves to wing?
When the Stars signed Hanzal, they created a bit of a logjam at center. Hitchcock is dedicated to using Tyler Seguin as the No. 1 center, meaning that either Hanzal or Jason Spezza likely will have to move to wing this season. Hanzal has never played wing in his NHL career, and Spezza has been at his best in Dallas when at center. It's going to be an interesting decision for the new coaching staff. The Stars do have a history of turning centers into wings; captain Jamie Benn started his NHL career at center before moving to left wing.
3. What will the defense pairs look like?
Dallas shored up its defense by trading for Methot but still has decisions to make. Julius Honka is expected to make the NHL roster out of training camp, meaning the Stars need to sort out what to do with Jamie Oleksiak, Patrik Nemeth and Greg Pateryn, and decide whether they'll have seven or eight defensemen on the roster. On top of that, there is a chance that Miro Heiskanen, the third pick in the 2017 NHL Draft, could have an impressive training camp and add to the logjam on defense. General manager Jim Nill has said he's comfortable bringing that many players into training camp and letting the situation sort itself out.




Tyler Seguin will get a chance to be the No. 1 center for the Dallas Stars this season, playing the position exclusively after being shifted to wing at times the past few seasons.
It's something coach Ken Hitchcock, who was hired to replace Lindy Ruff on April 13, stated was his intention, and Seguin is all for it.
"Absolutely, I feel like I'm a natural centerman," Seguin said at BioSteel Camp on Monday. "The past few years, I've kind of flipped back and forth. I don't get angry when I'm playing the wing, but I definitely get a little more excited when I'm playing center. Through all the ups and downs like every season has, I hope I stay a centerman and I look forward to working with our new coach and getting better at the position."
Seguin said playing center allows him to be more creative with the puck and generate offense more effectively.
"It enhances my speed first and foremost," Seguin said. "I find a lot of times when I'm on the wing, I can't really get my speed going as quickly to start a play. You're kind of standing still more as you're going back on offense, so definitely being a centerman, I'm more happy there."
Seguin had 72 points (26 goals, 46 assists) in 82 games last season, but the Stars failed to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs after finishing 34-37-11, 15 points out of the first wild card from the Western Conference. Dallas acquired, and then signed, goaltender Ben Bishop in a trade from the Los Angeles Kings, acquired defenseman Marc Methot in a trade from the Vegas Golden Knights, and signed unrestricted free agent forwards Alexander Radulov, Martin Hanzal and Tyler Pitlick.
Seguin said the signing of Radulov, who agreed to a five-year, $31.25 million contract July 3, had him most excited.
"I was really happy to get a goalie, and when we got Hanzal, I thought to myself, 'That's the forward we probably need,' and that was going to be huge," he said, "but when we topped it off with Radulov, it got me a little giddy. I was definitely excited to see that."
Although they have not met, Seguin said he has been texting with Radulov, who had 54 points (18 goals, 36 assists) in 76 games for the Montreal Canadiens last season, and is hoping he gets the chance to play with the right wing.
"Absolutely, I do," Seguin said. "Obviously with him playing in the Eastern Conference, you don't see him too much. I'll be honest, I've looked at some YouTube clips and stuff, and I can see how good a player he is. He's so good on the puck, he's a good playmaker, and he's a guy who always has good puck-possession numbers. You can see he controls the play, so I'm looking forward to that."
With the improvements made, Seguin knows the expectations will be for the Stars to return to the playoffs and be among the top teams in the conference. Dallas finished as the No. 1 seed in the conference in 2015-16 after going 50-23-9 (109 points).
"I think the expectations from all of us are going to be high," he said. "We've had these summers with the Stars organization where we've made some big moves. It started with my first year (in 2013), there were a lot of big moves that summer. Now with a new coach and new everything, I think this might be the biggest of moves in an offseason. So I don't know how much more you can do with X's and O's; there's no excuses. It's in the room now; it's in our team to put it together starting at training camp."

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