Thursday 28 September 2017

Minnesota Wild - 2017-18 Season Preview


The Minnesota Wild have qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs each of the past five seasons but have failed to make it past the second round, something they hope to change this season.
Despite setting Wild records with 49 wins and 106 points last season, Minnesota was eliminated in the Western Conference First Round; it was the fifth time in eight postseason appearances the Wild failed to win a series. A host of players had NHL career-high point totals, but the sting of a five-game playoff loss to the St. Louis Blues resonated most and resulted in roster changes.
Forward Erik Haula was lost in the NHL Expansion Draft to the Vegas Golden Knights, and forward prospect Alex Tuch was traded to Vegas for a conditional NHL Draft pick. The trade was assurance that the Golden Knights wouldn't select any of Minnesota's defensemen or veteran center Eric Staal, who was coming off his highest point total (65) in five seasons. 
On June 30, the Wild made a trade with the Buffalo Sabres to acquire forwards Marcus Foligno and Tyler Ennis along with a third-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft for defenseman Marco Scandella, forward Jason Pominville and a 2018 fourth-round pick.
Foligno scored an NHL career-best 13 goals in his fourth full season with the Sabres and has 116 points (49 goals, 67 assists) in 347 NHL games.
"It's a tough commodity to acquire that big, strong power forward," general manager Chuck Fletcher said of Foligno (6-foot-3, 228 pounds). "You look around the League, there's very few players that have that size and physical presence and can also contribute offensively. He's a player we think we need."Ennis is a three-time 20-goal scorer who has dealt with injuries the past two seasons. He had 13 points (five goals, eight assists) in 51 games last season, when he was limited by a groin injury.
Center Martin Hanzal signed a three-year contract with the Dallas Stars as a free agent, but the Wild signed eight players to contracts. Most notable was defenseman Kyle Quincey (one year, $1.25 million). The 31-year-old is expected to provide stability after the loss of Scandella and defenseman Nate Prosser, who signed a two-year, two-way contract with the St. Louis Blues on Aug. 2. 
Defenseman Ryan Murphy, 24, selected by the Carolina Hurricanes with the No. 12 pick in the 2011 NHL Draft, signed a one-year, two-way contract on July 1 after the final year of his contract was bought out by the Calgary Flames. Calgary acquired the right-hand shot in a trade from Carolina on June 29, and a change in scenery could prove to be what Murphy needs.
The Wild also agreed to terms with 40-year-old center Matt Cullen, a three-time Stanley Cup winner and a Minnesota native, on a one-year contract worth $1 million plus bonuses on Aug. 16.
Minnesota kept two key offensive players when it re-signed forward Nino Niederreiter to a five-year, $26.25 million contract on July 30, and center Mikael Granlund to a three-year, $17.25 million contract two days later. Each was a restricted free agent. 
"I think the biggest thing is, as a team, I really want us to make a deeper playoff run," Granlund said. "We need to make it to the playoffs first. But I think we have a really good group of guys and we can [do] some damage in the playoffs. My biggest goal is hopefully to make something special happen next year."Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin and Matt Dumba look to be the top four defensemen. There could be an open competition at training camp for the two remaining spots, with Quincey, Murphy, Gustav Olofsson, Mike Reilly and Carson Soucy the candidates.
"I think it was a major letdown what happened in the playoffs," forward Zach Parise said. "I think everyone should be coming back excited to start the season and give ourselves another chance."
Coach Bruce Boudreau will have Bob Woods as an assistant this season. Woods, hired June 24, worked with Boudreau as an assistant with the Anaheim Ducks from 2012-14. Last season, he was an assistant with the Sabres, who had the top-ranked power play in the NHL (24.5 percent). Woods replaces Scott Stevens, who resigned May 30.


The Minnesota Wild enter this season with a different look after the additions of forwards Marcus Foligno and Tyler Ennis in a trade with the Buffalo Sabres for forward Jason Pominville and defenseman Marco Scandella. Foligno and Ennis will provide more forward depth for the Wild, who ranked second in the NHL in goals per game (3.21) and ninth in power-play efficiency (21.0 percent) last season.
The Wild are looking to not only repeat their regular-season success after finishing with the most wins (49) and points (106) in their history, but advance beyond the Western Conference Second Round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2002-03.
1. Will Joel Eriksson Ek become an impact player?
The Wild's depth at center took a hit when they decided not to re-sign Martin Hanzal and lost Erik Haula to the Vegas Golden Knights in the NHL Expansion Draft. Eriksson Ek could ease the blow, even if it means starting on the fourth line.
He impressed last season with seven points (three goals, four assists) in 15 games, averaging 10:36 of ice time, but will need to show more responsibility in his end to gain the trust of coach Bruce Boudreau. Eriksson Ek is capable of adapting quickly and is expected to adjust his game accordingly.
2. Which players need to step up to assure playoff success?
Centers Mikko Koivu, 34, and Eric Staal, 32, left wing Zach Parise, 33, and defenseman Ryan Suter, 32, aren't getting any younger. None has made it past the second round of the playoffs with the Wild.
Center Mikael Granlund, 25, who led the Wild in scoring with 69 points last season; right wing Nino Niederreiter, 24, who had NHL career highs in goals (25) and points (57); and center Charlie Coyle, 25, who had an NHL career high 38 assists and 56 points, need to continue to raise their level of play. The acquisition of Foligno, 26, should provide a spark. Foligno (6-foot-3, 228 pounds) ranked fifth in the League with an NHL career-high 279 hits last season.
Forwards Eriksson Ek and Luke Kunin, and defensemen Gustav Olofsson and Mike Reilly, need to provide help.
3. Can Devan Dubnyk lead the Wild to playoff prominence?
Dubnyk, 31, who was acquired in a trade with the Arizona Coyotes on Jan. 14, 2015, ranks second in the NHL with 108 wins since 2014-15. He had a 1.86 goals-against average and .925 save percentage in a five-game series loss to the St. Louis Blues in the first round, but a key to assure Dubnyk is primed for a stronger postseason run is keeping him fresh. Having a backup goalie capable of playing 25-30 games is crucial.
The Wild signed Niklas Svedberg to a one-year, two-way contract on July 1, so expect him to push backup goalie Alex Stalock for playing time in training camp. Dubnyk has played at least 65 games in each of his two full seasons with the Wild.



1. Foreshadowed successWhen the Minnesota Wild acquired goalie Devan Dubnyk in a trade with the Arizona Coyotes on Jan. 14, 2015, nobody was sure what to expect. He was coming off a poor 2013-14 season split between the Edmonton Oilers and Nashville Predators, when his .891 save percentage ranked last among goalies who played more than 20 games.
As documented in "Hockey Abstract 2014," Dubnyk's imminent success may have been foreshadowed by his home plate save percentage of .873 from 2012-14, which ranked eighth among those who faced 1,000 shots in that time span. Those numbers indicated he was highly effective against shots taken from up close, inside the home plate area, and that his numbers could thrive in the right environment.
Dubnyk's .924 save percentage with the Wild ranks third among goalies who have started at least 20 games since the day he was traded to Minnesota, behind Carey Price of the Montreal Canadiens (.929) and Matt Murray of the Pittsburgh Penguins (.925).
2. Shot-based difference
Nino Niederreiter's NHL career got off to a rough start. In his rookie season with the New York Islanders in 2011-12, he scored one point in 55 games, becoming the ninth forward in history to score so few points in as many games in a single season.
After spending the following season in the American Hockey League, Niederreiter rekindled his career after being traded to the Wild on June 30, 2013. Since then, he has scored 173 points (83 goals, 90 assists) in 325 NHL games.
Niederreiter's most remarkable achievement is his shot-based metrics. Over these four seasons, Minnesota has outshot its opponents 3,759-3,307 with him on the ice at 5-on-5, for a shot-attempt percent of 53.20. That is 5.3 percent higher than how the Wild have performed while he was on the bench (47.9 percent). That boost ranks 14th among forwards who have played at least 20 games over that time span.

3. Modern-day Scotty Bowman
Coach Bruce Boudreau could be worth an extra 9.8 points in the standings per season. That's the highest average among active coaches and isn't far removed from Scotty Bowman's 11.2.
Over the long term, a coach's contributions can be estimated by comparing his team's points in the standings to the previous season's points regressed to the NHL average by 35 percent. That means an effective coach has to keep good teams good, improve weaker teams by more than they would have improved naturally and boost average teams into legitimate contention. The first and last conditions describe Boudreau perfectly.
In 763 games for the Washington Capitals, Anaheim Ducks and the Wild, Boudreau's teams have 1,004 points in the standings, which is 91.5 points more than expected. That ranks sixth all-time.





The pipeline of prospects for the Minnesota Wild is promising. Four forwards played a key role for their respective country in the 2017 IIHF World Junior Championship.
Forwards Luke Kunin and Jordan Greenway helped the United States win the gold medal, forward Kirill Kaprizov of Russia won bronze, and center Joel Eriksson Ek was a top scorer for Sweden. Kunin, Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek each served as captain of his team, and there's a good chance Eriksson Ek and Kunin will earn a role with the Wild this season.
Minnesota did not have any picks in the first two rounds of the 2017 NHL Draft. It selected right wing Ivan Lodnia in the third round (No. 85) and center Mason Shaw in the fourth round (No. 97), and Shaw earned the Wild Hustle Award at development camp.

Here are the Wild's top five prospects:
1. Joel Eriksson Ek, C
How acquired: Selected with No. 20 pick in 2015 NHL Draft
Last season: Minnesota: 15 GP, 3-4-7; Iowa (AHL): 1 GP, 1-0-1; Farjestad (SHL): 26 GP, 8-8-16
The timing for Eriksson Ek, 20, to fill a spot at third- or fourth-line center is now following the departure of Erik Haula to the Vegas Golden Knights in the NHL Expansion Draft. Eriksson Ek (6-foot-2, 197 pounds) showed great vision and a tremendous shot in his three seasons with Farjestad of the Swedish Hockey League, scoring 37 points (21 goals, 16 assists) in 101 games. He scored nine points (six goals, three assists) in seven games for Sweden at the 2017 WJC.
"He's just a meat-and-potatoes kind of player, and he can play left wing or center, which is good," coach Bruce Boudreau told the Wild website.
Projected NHL arrival: This season


2. Kirill Kaprizov, LW
How acquired: Selected with No. 135 pick in 2015 NHL Draft
Last season: Salavat Yulaev (KHL): 49 GP, 20-22-42
Kaprizov, who turned 20 following the season, set a record for points by a teenager (42) in the Kontinental Hockey League in 2016-17, topping the 41 points scored by Washington Capitals forward Evgeny Kuznetsov in 2011-12.
Kaprizov led the 2017 WJC with nine goals and 12 points in seven games for Russia and was named the tournament's best forward. The KHL announced on Aug. 10 that Kaprizov signed a three-year contract with CSKA Moscow. The 5-9, 185-pound forward is skilled and strong enough to play in the NHL but likely will spend one more season in the KHL.
Projected NHL arrival: Next season
 
3. Jordan Greenway, LW
How acquired: Selected with No. 50 pick in 2015 NHL Draft
Last season: Boston University (NCAA): 37 GP, 10-21-31
Greenway, 20, who decided to return to Boston University for his junior season, has 57 points (15 goals, 42 assists) in 76 NCAA games. A big forward (6-6, 226) with good scoring touch, he had eight points (three goals, five assists) in seven games for the United States at the 2017 WJC and was named a top-three player on the team.
Projected NHL arrival: Next season


4. Luke Kunin, C
How acquired: Selected with No. 15 pick in 2016 NHL Draft
Last season: Wisconsin (NCAA): 35 GP, 22-16-38; Iowa (AHL); 12 GP, 5-3-8
Kunin (6-0, 197) signed a three-year, entry-level contract in March. He scored five goals in 12 games for Iowa after his second season at the University of Wisconsin, when he was the Badgers' first sophomore captain in 41 years. Kunin, 19, helped Wisconsin (20-15-1) to a 12-win improvement from 2015-16. He had four points (two goals, two assists) in seven games for the United States at the 2017 WJC.
Projected NHL arrival: This season

5. Gustav Olofsson, D
How acquired: Selected with No. 46 pick in 2013 NHL Draft
Last season: Minnesota: 13 GP, 0-3-3; Iowa (AHL): 59 GP, 6-18-24
Olofsson 22, likely would have played more NHL games last season had it not been for injuries, including a torn labrum in each shoulder and a medial collateral ligament sprain in his right knee sustained at the 2016 Traverse City Prospects Tournament.
Olofsson (6-3, 195) earned time on the power play, made minimal mistakes, and proved he had good offensive upside last season. The Wild signed him to a two-year contract on June 26.
Projected NHL arrival: This season



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