Toronto Maple Leafs - 2017-18 Season Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to take another step forward this season after taking a huge one in 2016-17.

They've rejuvenated the passion of their fan base, thanks to an unexpected berth in the Stanley Cup Playoffs powered by an exciting core of young players. Their 40-27-15 record gave them their winningest season since 2006-07 and their first playoff appearance in four seasons, all after finishing with the worst record in the NHL in 2015-16. 
"Part of the excitement for our fans is they see something growing," coach Mike Babcock said, "and to me, their positive support has been fantastic because they see something to believe in now. We're no different as a team, we're just going to keep grinding and getting better, and as we do, we'll get our turn."
Not only are fans believing in the Maple Leafs again, so too are other players around the League. Toronto signed forward Patrick Marleau, who spent the first 19 seasons of his NHL career with the San Jose Sharks, to a three-year, $18.75 million contract ($6.25 million average annual value) on July 2.

"It was the team, the excitement that's around it, the youth, the coaching staff, the coach, the management, the way they see the game going, and the players they have on their roster," Marleau, 37, said when asked what attracted him to the Maple Leafs. "It's extremely exciting to be a part of that."
Babcock, who developed a relationship with Marleau coaching him on Canada's gold-medal winning teams at the 2010 Vancouver and 2014 Sochi Olympics, said he has given much thought to who will play with Marleau but has not made a final decision.

"I still believe he can score 20 goals in the League, for sure, and he can play on any one of our top nine spots," Babcock said. "He can play against the best players, he can play with the best players. He can do whatever you ask him to do and he's comfortable doing it."

The Maple Leafs were low on playoff experience last season; five players in their lineup for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference First Round against the Washington Capitals had skated in more than seven NHL postseason games. 
Of that group, forward James van Riemsdyk, who had 62 points (29 goals, 33 assists) in 82 games last season, and forward Matt Martin remain, but center Brian Boyle signed with the New Jersey Devils and defenseman Matt Hunwick signed with the Pittsburgh Penguins, each as an unrestricted free agent. Defenseman Roman Polak, an unrestricted free agent who had surgery after breaking his fibula in Game 2 against Washington, remains unsigned. 
Marleau, who had 46 points (27 goals, 19 assists) in 82 games last season, brings 177 games of NHL playoff experience. Center Dominic Moore signed a one-year, $1 million contract July 1; he has played in 99 Stanley Cup Playoff games.

"Their experience is obviously a bonus, but experience without the ability to play doesn't do you much good," Babcock said. "We wanted more speed, more size and more depth up front. We feel that will give us a better chance to score."

Much of the offensive responsibility will fall on a durable forward group that includes Auston Matthews, who won the Calder Trophy as the top rookie in the NHL after scoring 69 points (40 goals, 29 assists) in 82 games, van Riemsdyk, Nazem Kadri (32-29-61 in 82 games), William Nylander (22-39-61 in 81 games) and Mitchell Marner (19-42-61 in 77 games).
Defenseman Ron Hainsey, who signed a two-year, $6 million contract ($3 million average annual value) on July 1, made the NHL playoffs for the first time in his 15-season career in 2016-17 and played a key role in helping the Penguins to their second consecutive Stanley Cup championship. Babcock said his intention is to pair Hainsey with Morgan Rielly to start this season.

Defenseman Nikita Zaitsev, who partnered with Rielly to begin his rookie season but finished it alongside Jake Gardiner, had 36 points (four goals, 32 assists) in 82 games. The Maple Leafs showed their commitment to Zaitsev by signing him to a seven-year, $31.5 million contract ($4.5 million average annual value) on May 2. Babcock's challenge this season will be to keep expectations realistic, given that several of Toronto's core players, including Matthews, Marner and Zaitsev, are entering their second NHL season.

"We're real reasonable with our group; we expect to get better than we were last year," Babcock said. "You can't control injuries and some other things, but you expect to get better, and we think we've done a good job improving our roster."

Expectations were tempered for the Toronto Maple Leafs prior to last season, but despite having as many as eight rookies in the lineup, they qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time in an 82-game season since 2003-04.After pushing the Presidents' Trophy-winning Washington Capitals to six games, each decided by one goal and five going to overtime, in the Eastern Conference First Round before losing, expectations will be much higher this season.
 

1. Can Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner and William Nylander follow up on their successful rookie season?
The Maple Leafs boasted three dynamic rookie forwards last season. Matthews led Toronto in scoring with 69 points (40 goals, 29 assists) in 82 games, Marner had 61 (19 goals, 42 assists) in 77 games, and Nylander had 61 (22 goals, 39 assists) in 81 games. Each made a huge impact in his first NHL season. The key now will be for them to avoid a slump in their second season.
"I buy into a notion that the League gets harder and harder every year you're in it, so your preparation for your next season is so important," coach Mike Babcock said. "If you think you've made it, you're on your way out. If you live in fear, that's the best. If you keep getting better, you have a chance to be good every year. If you don't get better, I don't care what year it is, it's going to be a jinx, but it's a jinx because you didn't do the work."

2. Is there enough goaltending depth?

The Maple Leafs relied heavily on Frederik Andersen last season. He started 66 games and was 33-16-14, earning 80 of Toronto's 95 points. Searching for a viable backup option, they claimed Curtis McElhinney off waivers from the Columbus Blue Jackets on Jan. 10. He went 6-7-0 in 14 games for the Maple Leafs and was signed to a two-year, $1.7 million contract ($850,000 average annual value) on July 1. With Garret Sparks, who has played 17 NHL games, likely next in line to be recalled from Toronto of the American Hockey League, would McElhinney and Sparks be able to carry the load should Andersen miss extended time?
3. Is the defense strong enough to compete for the Stanley Cup?
The top two defense pairs are Morgan Rielly with Ron Hainsey and Jake Gardiner with Nikita Zaitsev, according to Babcock. That leaves Martin Marincin, Connor Carrick, Travis Dermott, and free agent signings Calle Rosen and Andreas Borgman as potential candidates for the remaining roster spots.
"Our D really improved last year," Babcock said. "We had a lot of guys who hadn't done it before, but I think the experience the guys gained last year and the expectations they have for themselves and knowing what's expected will make them better."

1. Charting a new courseOne of the most remarkable transformations in the NHL in recent seasons has been the Toronto Maple Leafs' improvement in shot-based metrics.
Between 2012-13 and 2014-15, the Maple Leafs were outshot 10,653-8,538 in 5-on-5 shot attempts for an SAT differential of minus-2,115 that ranked 29th in the League, ahead of only the Buffalo Sabres (minus-3,151). Though good shooting and hot goaltending sometimes can keep teams competitive for a little while, teams with poor shot-based metrics eventually tumble down the standings.
Toronto has reversed course under president Brendan Shanahan, who hired coach Mike Babcock on May 20, 2015, and general manager Lou Lamoriello on July 23, 2015. Since the start of the 2015-16 season, the Maple Leafs have outshot their opponents 7,703-7,439 for an SAT differential of plus-264 (13th).

2. Loss of disciplineOne of the most interesting anomalies from last season was forward Nazem Kadri's sudden change in penalty differential.
Going into last season, Kadri had drawn 205 penalties and took 91 of his own in 326 NHL games for a penalty differential of 28.8 per 82 games that ranked among the best in the League.
Though these types of statistics tend to remain relatively consistent throughout a player's career, Kadri drew 31 penalties and was called for 39 in 82 games last season for a penalty differential of minus-8.
On a per-82-game basis, Kadri's rate of drawing penalties fell from an NHL career average of 51.7 to 31, a decrease of 40 percent, and his own penalties increased by 69.6 percent from an average of 23.0 to 39.


3. Matt Martin's physical play
In terms of sheer numbers, Martin has been the best hitter in the NHL.
The veteran forward had 300 hits last season, second to Ottawa Senators defenseman Mark Borowiecki (364). It was the first time that Martin failed to lead the League in hits since he was a rookie in 2010-11.
It's important to note the various factors that can affect a player's hit total, including ice time and the different rates at which hits are recorded by NHL scorekeepers from one city to another.
Borowiecki averaged 14:00 of ice time per game last season, and Martin's average ice time fell from 10:33 with the New York Islanders in 2015-16 to 8:53 with the Maple Leafs.
Martin led the NHL with an equivalent of 25.53 hits per 60 even-strength minutes the past three seasons when adjusted to League-average scorekeeping. Borowiecki ranked fifth (16.24).


The Toronto Maple Leafs have one of the deepest group of prospects in the NHL. Several young players could be ready to make the jump to the NHL this season, but there will not be enough roster spots for everyone on a team that returns seven players 23 or younger who played in more than 20 games last season.

"The beauty of our program now is we have too many good players for the 23 spots," coach Mike Babcock said. "That's going to make training camp ultra-competitive. That to me is a sign of going in the right direction and a real positive for our group." 
1. Kasperi Kapanen, RW
How acquired: Trade from Pittsburgh Penguins on July 1, 2015
Last season: Toronto (NHL): 8 GP, 1-0-1; Toronto (AHL): 43 GP, 18-25-43
Kapanen, 21, has elite skating ability and offensive upside in addition to being an effective penalty-killer. He spent most of last season with Toronto of the American Hockey League and made his NHL season debut March 28. He averaged 10:41 of ice time in eight games, and then found a comfort level in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Kapanen (5-foot-11, 180 pounds) scored two goals in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference First Round against the Washington Capitals, the second coming in overtime.
"He's a real good player," Babcock said. "He's capable of playing in the NHL."
Projected NHL arrival: This season

2. Miro Aaltonen, C

How acquired: Signed as free agent March 17
Last season: Vityaz Podolsk (KHL): 59 GP, 19-25-44
Prior to last season, he had 119 points (56 goals, 63 assists) in 233 games for Blues in Liiga, Finland's top professional league. Aaltonen (5-11, 176) skates well but lacks strength and a physical component to his game.
"We think he's a real good player," Babcock said of the 24-year-old. "He'll add good competition and we think that's important. We felt we were real short at center last year, we didn't have enough guys who could play center. We wanted to make sure we were in a better spot that way."
Projected NHL arrival: This season

3. Travis Dermott, D
How acquired: Selected with No. 34 pick in 2015 NHL Draft
Last season: Toronto (AHL): 59 GP, 5-19-24
Dermott, 20, skates well with the puck, has shown strong defensive awareness, and limits mistakes by avoiding unnecessary risks. He also projects as a player capable of contributing on the power play. Last season, Dermott (5-11, 207) had eight power-play points (one goal, seven assists) in the AHL.
Projected NHL arrival: This season

4. Calle Rosen, D
How acquired: Signed as free agent May 16
Last season: Vaxjo (SWE): 41 GP, 6-13-19
The 23-year-old is a strong skater, can handle the puck effectively, and is comfortable in all three zones. Rosen (6-foot, 174) also has a powerful shot.
Projected NHL arrival: This season
5. Timothy Liljegren, D
How acquired: Selected with No. 17 pick in 2017 NHL Draft
Last season: Rogle (SWE): 19 GP, 1-4-5
Liljegren, 18, has elite skating ability and can handle the puck at top speed. He is an effective passer and projects to be a point-producing defenseman. Liljegren (6-0, 191) has said he admires the style of Ottawa Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson and tries to emulate his type of game. He likely would have been selected higher in the draft, but he was diagnosed with mononucleosis in September and took half the season to return to form.
"His skill set is set up for him to have a lot of success," Babcock said. "Now his drive train has to take over and he's got to do the work so he can be the player he's capable of being. He has a lot of God-given talent, he passes the puck, shoots the puck, skates, has good hockey sense, and plays within himself. I like his game a lot, but that's just a platform to build off of. He's got a lot of work to do yet."
Projected NHL arrival: Next season