Friday 11 January 2013

2 - Florida Panthers

If the Florida Panthers improve this season the way they did in 2011-12, a Stanley Cup can't be far off. Consider: The Panthers jumped 22 points, nine places and 12 seeds in the Eastern Conference, made the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2000, and won the only division title in franchise history. Then, in the first round of the playoffs, they built a 3-2 series lead against the New Jersey Devils before losing Game 6 in overtime and Game 7 in double overtime. The Devils went on to reach the Stanley Cup Final. "We gave it our best shot and we were a goal away from moving on," Panthers general manager Dale Tallon said. "Who's to say what would happen in the next series? We don't deal in hypotheticals. We had a good year. We're very positive going into the offseason, but we're not satisfied." Tallon gave the Panthers an extreme makeover last summer, adding 10 players to the roster and new coach Kevin Dineen. "We obviously had a lot of new faces last year and one of those new faces included our head coach," goalie Scott Clemmensen told the team's website. "It created a very fun environment to be in and the team had some relative success throughout the season."

The Panthers have one of the most productive top lines in the League (Stephen Weiss-Kris Versteeg-Tomas Fleischmann) and one of its highest-scoring defensemen (Brian Campbell), with those elements combining for a top-10 power play. Versteeg, one of last season's newcomers, signed a four-year contract as a free agent to stay in Florida, based in part on its potential to win. "It feels pretty good. It's been a bit of a whirlwind the last two years but right now security was the No. 1 thing for me. To play in Florida was a No. 1 thing," Versteeg said after agreeing to the contract. "I mean it all came down to wanting to be in Florida and wanting to play here." That desire to stay is a significant part of Tallon's plan for the franchise. "We want people that want to be Panthers. It's very important," the GM said. "You don't want to sign people to long-term deals that are kind of iffy that they don't want to be here or they're doubtful that they want to be Panthers." Campbell, another new face last season, scored a single-team career-high 53 points (tied for second among NHL defensemen) but will be looking for a partner after Jason Garrison left for his hometown Vancouver Canucks. Filip Kuba was signed as a free agent to fill that spot, and forward Peter Mueller was given a one-year deal to add scoring to the forwards. The team also acquired veteran tough-guy forward George Parros.
Additions: D Filip Kuba, C Peter Mueller, RW George Parros
Subtractions: D Jason Garrison, RW Mikael Samuelsson, LW Wojtek Wolski, RW Krystopher Barch
UFAs: LW Marco Sturm, C John Madden
Promotion candidates: C Jonathan Huberdeau, C Drew Shore, D Colby Robak

"We figure we are going to add some young guys to our lineup and George has had a history of being a real positive influence on young guys on and off the ice," Tallon said. "... He’s got good experience, he's a hard-nosed guy that works hard in practice and is a good model for our young guys and really will add some leadership in the locker room besides." The other forwards are proven, Sean Bergenheim, Marcel Goc, Tomas Kopecky and Scottie Upshall (each new to the team last season) all have at least five seasons in the League. Veteran defensemen Ed Jovanoski and Mike Weaver mix with young players Keaton Ellerby (23), Dmitry Kulikov (21) and Erik Gudbranson (20). But unless goalie Roberto Luongo is acquired in a long-rumored trade with Vancouver to supplant the tandem of Clemmensen and Jose Theodore, any noticeable improvement will come from the Panthers' overflowing vault of high-level prospects.

Forward Jonathan Huberdeau, a Calder Trophy favorite, is expected to add significant scoring (he averaged almost two points per game in junior last season), and he could be joined by forward Quinton Howden and defenseman Colby Robak. "We obviously need some skill," Tallon said on Panthers Vision. "We'd like to add two, three (young players) maybe, but we need some help up front. We need to get some scoring and we've got the young assets and young players that we're going to give them a chance to see if they can do it." If the Panthers find that secondary scoring and get a boost of enthusiasm from their talented youth, Tallon's vision could be realized more quickly than he imagined. "I'm really pumped about our future," Tallon said. "We had a great year last year, but our future even looks better. And that's what I'm excited about."


Entering last season, the Florida Panthers faced one overriding question: "Who are these guys?"
General manager Dale Tallon remade the roster last summer, adding 10 new players to a core of Stephen Weiss and little else. Entering this season, "these guys" are the defending Southeast Division champion, and the questions now involve a team on the rise that could be a player or two (from inside or outside) from entering Stanley Cup contention.

The Vancouver Canucks seem prepared to trade their franchise goaltender. Luongo has said he'd be willing to return to the Panthers. Tallon has not ruled out making the deal. "Obviously Vancouver's in the driver's seat," Tallon said on the Panthers' website. "I'm willing to listen to anything they have to offer." The Canucks' asking price (reportedly starting with prospect Nick Bjugstad) is too high for the Panthers' liking. Plus, with Jose Theodore and Scott Clemmensen established as NHL goaltenders, and prospect Jacob Markstrom waiting in the wings, the Panthers' need at the position is not overwhelming, or even whelming. Luongo's career resume is impressive: 2010 Olympic gold medal; three All-Star Games; top 10 in wins six times (led the League in 2010-11); second in career wins among active players; 17th in all-time wins. But Luongo's save percentage last season was .919, matching his career average. Theodore's was .917; Clemmensen's was .913. Based on the Panthers' per-game average of 30.5 shots allowed, the difference between Luongo and the current tandem would be one goal every eight games. In addition to whatever it would cost in assets to make a trade, Luongo, at 33 years old, has 10 years and a $5.3 million annual salary-cap charge remaining on his contract. And if Luongo arrives, what do the Panthers do with Markstrom? The 22-year old is considered one of the best players not in the NHL full-time. If he is indeed the Panthers' goalie of the future, there's little reason to revisit the past with Luongo, who played for them from 2000-06. "Our goaltending was a real strong suit of ours last year," Tallon said. "... All three of them work well together and they were solid for us last year. It wasn't an issue, goaltending."
Stephen Weiss, Kris Versteeg and Tomas Fleischmann, anyone for "The Rat Pack"?, combined for more points with each other on the ice than any trio of forwards in the NHL last season. According to DobberHockey.com, the Weiss-Versteeg-Fleischmann trio totaled 108 points, ahead of Toronto's Bozak-Kessel-Lupul line (106 points), Montreal's Cole-Desharnais-Pacioretty trio (105), Detroit's Filppula-Hudler-Zetterberg (104), and Pittsburgh's Malkin-Neal-Kunitz (104). "It's a pleasure to watch them play the game, with their skill level, and their intensity, and how they move the puck, and how they're unselfish, and how they really fed off of each other throughout the regular season and in the playoffs," Tallon said. The Panthers rode their top line, "The Sunshine Boys"?, as long as they could, and maybe a little too long. In 39 games prior to Jan. 1, they combined for 105 points and were plus-40. In 43 games during calendar year 2012, they combined for 67 points and were minus-38. Opponents learned that stopping them would stop the Panthers, and the team rarely split them in an effort to balance their scoring. Also, Versteeg after the season addressed a hip injury that in hindsight limited him and his linemates. "During the season it definitely gets on your mind but you don't want to say it affects you too much because you're a hockey player and you don't make excuses," Versteeg said after signing a new four-year contract. But the line, "Miami Ice"?, responded in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, scoring nine of the team's 17 goals and getting seven assists against the New Jersey Devils, whom the Panthers led 3-2 in the series before losing Game 6 in overtime and Game 7 in double OT.

The first line was great offensively, lines two through four, though, not so much. The Weiss-Versteeg-Fleischmann unit combined for 70 goals, more than one-third of the Panthers’ total, and had 76 points at even strength. Florida's next best combination (Sean Bergenheim-Marcel Goc-Mikael Samuelsson) had 29 even-strength points, and Samuelsson no longer is with the team. No other forward combination had more than nine points playing together. Top prospect Jonathan Huberdeau is expected to help; he scored almost two points per game for Saint John of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League last season. And if free-agent signee Peter Mueller can stay healthy and regain his 50-point form, the Panthers should be able to count on two lines of scoring, at least. The defense can chip in too. Jason Garrison (16 goals) is gone, but Brian Campbell, whose 53 points tied for second among NHL defensemen (and ranked fourth on the Panthers), and Dmitry Kulikov (28 points in 58 games) return.

Garrison signed with his hometown Vancouver Canucks as a free agent after having his best NHL season playing on the top pair with Campbell. Tallon is confident free-agent signee Filip Kuba can fill the gap. He had 32 points and was plus-26 last season for the Ottawa Senators playing with Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson. "Kuba's a good power-play guy. He's got plenty of potential on the power play," Tallon said on Panthers Vision. "He's got 30 points in a year [five] times. He's got a good shot." Kulikov (an unsigned restricted free agent) could move up to the first power-play unit if needed. Garrison did as much for Campbell as Campbell did for him. After two below-his-standard seasons with the Chicago Blackhawks, the 33-year-old had his second-best season in points, averaged almost 27 minutes per game, and became the first defenseman to win the Lady Byng Trophy in 58 years.

From 2009-11, the NHL draft put 28 players into the Panthers system, which is recognized now as one of the deepest and most talented in the NHL. When to bring them up, whose places they will take, who to keep, and who to use in trades, those could be some of Tallon's most difficult, and scrutinized, decisions. "There's no sense drafting all these kids and having no place for them to play," Tallon said. "... We have to open up some space for these guys when they're ready. We've got some guys who are going to be ready this year, one or two, and we'll have two or three ready next year, and three to five the following year, so we need places for them to play." And if they aren't going to play in Florida, then it could be somewhere else. "They're not all going to be Panthers, but they're all going to help us build the Panthers into a winning organization for many years to come," Tallon said.

The Panthers won a division title for the first time in their history last season. Their Southeast Division rivals noticed. The Washington Capitals added Mike Ribeiro. The Tampa Bay Lightning traded for Anders Lindback and signed Matt Carle. The Winnipeg Jets signed Olli Jokinen. And the Carolina Hurricanes traded for Jordan Staal, signed Alexander Semin, and got Jeff Skinner's name on a long-term contract extension. The Panthers are confident they don't need to respond hastily. "I don't look at it as [us wearing] a target. I look at it as a progression for us," Tallon said. "We're ahead of schedule. No one expected us to be where we're at this soon, and neither did we, to be honest with you. But we're satisfied that we had a great year. But we still have the same plan in place that we had prior to this season and we've got long-term goals and we have a blueprint in place and we're going to stick with it." The Southeast was the closest division in the NHL last season, Florida held off Washington by two points for the title, and finished 12 points ahead of last place Carolina. The average spread first-to-last in the other five divisions was 30 points. "We're excited with what we did but we're not satisfied," Tallon said. "We'll move forward and get better. We saw how exciting it was at the end and in the playoffs and we want to maintain that and go deeper and further in the playoffs. That's our goal."


The line stands out among Peter Mueller's statistics, 20 points in 15 games during the 2009-10 season. The Florida Panthers signed the 24-year-old Mueller to a one-year contract as a free agent this offseason with those numbers, and their need for any kind of offense, certainly in mind. "He understands this is a great opportunity for him," Panthers general manager Dale Tallon said after the July 12 signing. "He's a top-six forward. He has size and skill, and he's still young. It's well worth the risk for us to sign him to a one-year deal and hope he gets back to what he was before he was injured." Mueller put up those gaudy figures above after the Avalanche acquired him from the Phoenix Coyotes in a deadline trade. At 21 years old, he seemed to be realizing the potential that was forecast for him as the No. 8 pick in the 2006 NHL Draft and reinforced his rookie season. But he suffered a concussion on April 4, 2010, and missed the final four games plus a six-game playoff series. That didn't keep the Avalanche from signing him to a two-year contract, but another concussion in a preseason game cost Mueller all of 2010-11. After a three-game attempt to open last season, he came back for good on Jan. 12. He went 654 days between NHL points. "Every time I talk to doctors since I got cleared last time in January, everything is good," Mueller said on his first day with the Panthers. "The doctors are behind me 100 percent. Nothing is really a red flag. Everything is good to go. I've been working out ever since I got cleared. Things have been getting better each and every day. To be honest, I haven't felt this good since coming into the League my first year." Mueller had 16 points in his final 26 games for the Avalanche. But the Panthers, whose scoring depth drops precipitously when forwards Stephen Weiss, Kris Versteeg and Tomas Fleischmann leave the ice, are pining for more, a lot more. "I hope to get him back to what he was his rookie year," Tallon said. "He seems to be revitalized, and we did our due diligence. … "We brought him in here and checked him out from toes to nose, and everything checked out fine," Tallon added. "... He's still young and has a lot of good years ahead of him, so if he does well and plays well he's got a great opportunity to stay here for a long time and fit in with our development plan." Mueller debuted with the Coyotes as a 19-year-old, scoring 54 points in 81 games. He hasn't played that many games in a season since then. If Mueller can contribute full-time, likely playing alongside heralded rookie Jonathan Huberdeau, the Panthers will be much better poised to defend their Southeast Division title and return to the Stanley Cup Playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1996-97. "I'm just looking for a fresh start -- obviously it's no secret with my past," Mueller said. "As I spoke to Dale, he's basically told me what he's expecting out of me and I'm expecting a lot personally from myself. I'm coming in here with a great attitude and just ready to rock and roll this coming season."
 
 
For those hockey fans who are involved in fantasy leagues, Dale Tallon's work with the Florida Panthers in the calendar year of 2011 looked like a real-world nod to the yo-yo nature of keeper-based contests. Tallon gutted an underachieving roster before the 2011 trade deadline, and it looked like he ushered in a new five-year plan in South Florida. Instead, the rebuild happened much quicker. Tallon added players in bulk last summer, in part because he needed to fill roster spots and reach the salary cap floor. His new collection of players jelled much quick than anyone could have expected, and new coach Kevin Dineen led the Panthers to the first division title in franchise history and the first trip to the Stanley Cup Playoffs in more than a decade. This offseason was much quieter for Tallon, and now the building process becomes more about patience than prodigious spending. Peter Mueller was a low-risk signing who could provide a nice return if he can stay healthy, but otherwise the rest of the key pieces remain the same from last season, at least among established NHL players. Florida has one of the best collections of prospects in the NHL, and the next season or two will be defined by how Tallon and Dineen assimilate a wave of young talent that could make the Panthers contenders for the Stanley Cup for several seasons. Defensemen Erik Gudbranson and Dmitry Kulikov have already arrived in South Florida, and Jonathan Huberdeau is almost certain to join them this season. How many other prospects join the club and when will be worth monitoring. The Panthers sped up their timetable for being contenders with a surprising 2011-12 season. Now they must prove it wasn't a fluke. Regardless, the young talent could make the Panthers better this season even if some of the regulars from last season fall off, and they could make Florida a lot better in forthcoming campaigns.
Forwards
Tomas Fleischmann - Stephen Weiss - Kris Versteeg
Peter Mueller - Jonathan Huberdeau - Scottie Upshall
Sean Bergenheim - Marcel Goc - Tomas Kopecky
Shawn Matthias - Jerrod Smithson - George Parros
Mike Santorelli - Jack Skille
Defensemen
Brian Campbell - Erik Gudbranson
Dmitry Kulikov - Filip Kuba
Ed Jovanovski - Mike Weaver
Keaton Ellerby
Goaltenders
Jose Theodore
Scott Clemmensen
NOTES: While the top line of Fleischmann, Weiss and Versteeg faded in the second half of last season, there's little reason to think they won't start this campaign together unless Dineen wants to help Huberdeau out early in his rookie season. Upshall is far from a lock as a top-six guy, so if one of the team's other tantalizing forward prospects (Quinton Howden, Drew Shore, etc.) is ready, he could be pushed down the lineup. There are plenty of bottom-six type guys on guaranteed contracts, so don't expect one of the kids to stick with the big club if not as a second-line forward. Kuba makes a lot of sense as a replacement for Jason Garrison, but like Upshall, Ed Jovanovski's grasp on a key role could be fleeting. Colby Robak and Alex Petrovic might not be far off, and there aren't a lot of options to sit among the defense corps after maybe Ellerby (who is also still young enough to improve and earn a regular top-six spot). Those extra years on contracts last summer for Upshall, Jovanovski and Tomas Kopecky could make for some awkward transitions and expensive healthy scratches in the near future. Then there is the goaltending situation, which might be the most intriguing part of Florida's plan to integrate the kids. If Jacob Markstrom isn't ready for at least part-time NHL duty, he's really, really close. Theodore has one year left on his contract, so maybe that is a natural sucession. There's also a certain ex-Panthers goaltender currently on a roster in the Pacific Northwest with 10 years left on his contract who would really make things interesting. If anything, last season will help Tallon and Dineen not feel the need to rush the kids because the new players performed so well. They are coming though, and fitting everyone, young and old, together will be the challenge.

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