Monday 14 January 2013

5 - Nashville Predators

The Nashville Predators are still chasing that elusive Stanley Cup, but they continue to show they're willing to do whatever it takes to fulfill their dream. Whether it's trading first-round draft picks for veteran players or matching a mammoth offer sheet for its franchise player and captain, Nashville brass will not rest until it's parading Lord Stanley around Music City. That challenge grew bigger this summer when the Predators lost defenseman Ryan Suter to the Minnesota Wild via free agency. Suter, who along with Shea Weber formed one of the top defensive pairings in the NHL, signed a 13-year deal with the Wild on July 4. Two weeks later, the Philadelphia Flyers tried to pry Weber away. They signed the Predators' captain, who was a restricted free agent, to a 14-year offer sheet. Nashville had a week to match it but didn't need the full seven days to announce it wasn't about to allow Weber to leave town too. Though it won't be easy to replace someone of Suter's caliber, Predators general manager David Poile said he believes it is an opportunity for another player within the organization to step up and help fill the void. And with Weber still in the mix, and Pekka Rinne between the pipes, the chance to win remains solid. "A little over a year ago, after we won our first playoff round, we made a lot of hard decisions and we let go of a lot of veteran players and started the season last year as the youngest team in the League," Poile said. "That, to me, started the window of opportunity. That’s where I felt, potentially, that the next three, four or five years, as long as we keep the bulk of our team together, that this was our chance to win. With Pekka signing and now with Shea signing, I think we're well on our way to living up to that hope or that phrase with the window of opportunity. "I think everybody on our team has a chance to have a career year. We're all getting better. We're at a place where virtually all of our players potentially can get better. We couldn't be in a better position than we are today." Even without Suter, the Predators will be a competitive team in 2012-13. Other free agents elected to remain in Nashville, including trade-deadline acquisitions Paul Gaustad and Hal Gill. Sergei Kostitsyn, who has scored 40 goals and 93 points over the past two seasons, also agreed to a new deal.
Additions: G Chris Mason
Subtractions: D Ryan Suter, D Francis Bouillon, G Anders Lindback, D Jack Hillen, RW Jordin Tootoo
UFAs: RW Andrei Kostitsyn
Promotion candidates: D Teemu Laakso, LW Taylor Beck, RW Juuso Puustinen, C Michael Latta


"I think everyone that has played [in Nashville] knows how great the city is and they talk about that, they love the atmosphere at the rink and everything about the city," Weber said. "Now that I'm there hopefully for the rest of my career, we can … David said he felt like he was handcuffed because nobody would commit long-term. Now there [are] guys committed long-term and there's no more excuses that way. We can try to recruit guys and tell them all the good things we've got going and what we look forward to in the future." The Predators believe Roman Josi is the first candidate to skate alongside Weber, which could be for more than 25 minutes per game. Josi, who was Nashville's second-round selection (No. 38) in the 2008 NHL Draft, had 16 points (five goals, 11 assists) and a plus-1 rating in 52 games for the Predators in 2011-12, his first season in the NHL. "If we were going to start today, Roman Josi would move up to that spot next to Shea, for a number of reasons," Nashville coach Barry Trotz said. "I think he does a number of things Ryan Suter did at the same age (Josi turned 22 in June). I think Roman is an up-and-coming player. Roman's ability to move the puck, skate with it, complements Shea's veteran presence, his physicality, his big shot. He catches a lot of minutes against top guys. I would probably say that would be my first play at training camp, Roman lining up with Shea, and that would be a pretty strong twosome." If that's the case, there's no reason to believe the Predators can't be a force in the ultra-competitive Central Division again, even without Suter. "I'm as excited about this team as any team we've had," Trotz said. "Starting out last year, where we were at the start of last year and where we are at the start of this year, it's not even the same position. We're so much farther ahead with our young guys. We ended up with 104 points last year with a team at the start of the year that I didn't think had enough there. And as the team grew, we added guys like Paul Gaustad, Hal Gill, those type of people. And the improvement of the young guys like [Craig] Smith, [Colin] Wilson, Gabriel Bourque up front, Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis, this team is really set up long-term and really in a good position. … We're in a go-forward mode to win a Stanley Cup."

The Nashville Predators have yet to reach the Western Conference Finals since they began play in 1998, and now a key member of the organization will be elsewhere. Ryan Suter, the club's first-round pick from the historic 2003 NHL Draft who averaged close to 30 minutes of ice time per game last season, left the Predators on July 4 to sign a 13-year deal with the Minnesota Wild. Two weeks later, Nashville nearly suffered another major blow when captain Shea Weber signed a 14-year offer sheet with the Philadelphia Flyers that the Predators ultimately matched. Though the loss of Suter potentially could be devastating, coach Barry Trotz is confident the franchise has the depth to remain competitive. "I'm as excited about this team as any team we've had," Trotz said. "Starting out last year, where we were at the start of last year and where we are at the start of this year, it's not even the same position. We're so much farther ahead with our young guys. We ended up with 104 points last year with a team at the start of the year that I didn't think had enough there. And as the team grew, we added guys like Paul Gaustad, Hal Gill, those type of people. And the improvement of the young guys like [Craig] Smith, [Colin] Wilson, Gabriel Bourque up front, Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis, this team is really set up long-term and really in a good position. … We're in a go-forward mode to win a Stanley Cup."


Ryan Suter had 46 points in 79 regular-season games and spent roughly half of each contest on the ice. His plus-15 rating ranked second on the club behind his blue line partner, Shea Weber (plus-21). Finding someone to fill the void left by Suter's departure won't be easy, but the Predators are confident young defensemen Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis are capable. In 542 games (all with Nashville), Suter had 38 goals and 200 assists in seven seasons. "Now it's time for someone on the back end, someone young, [Roman] Josi, [Ryan] Ellis, [Kevin] Klein, to step up and play more minutes," Weber said. "I think we've got guys capable of doing that. It's an exciting time. We're a young team, but we're very talented and we're not far away at all."


The Predators were successful last season because of their ability to keep the puck out of their net, they allowed 210 goals, ninth fewest in the League. But with Suter out of the picture, Nashville may need to provide more offense for Pekka Rinne in order to win its fair share of games. The Predators spread the offense around a season ago (they scored 237 goals, eighth most in the NHL), but not one player reached 30 goals. Patric Hornqvist led the club with 27 and was one of two players to score 20 (Mike Fisher had 24). "I think we have enough depth in a lot of areas," general manager David Poile said. "We’re a really good team now. Can we be better? Yes. We're going to try and take advantage of some other opportunities as they come up."


Pekka Rinne enjoyed a world-class campaign in 2011-12, winning 43 games and earning a trip to Las Vegas as a finalist for the Vezina Trophy. Now armed with a seven-year, $49 million contract, the pressure will be even heavier on Rinne in 2012-13 after the club lost Suter to free agency. It might be both unfair and unrealistic to expect Rinne to duplicate his tremendous numbers from last season (2.39 goals-against average, .923 save percentage, five shutouts), but he'll need to be in the same area code if the Predators are going to continue to keep pace with the Detroit Red Wings, Chicago Blackhawks and St. Louis Blues in the Central Division.


Mattias Ekholm had a rough start to his NHL career and was ultimately returned to Sweden, but the Predators remain very high on this 6-foot-4 defenseman, and rightfully so. With another year of seasoning, Nashville is hopeful the 22-year-old is ready for prime time. And why not? After all, Ekholm, the Predators' fourth-round choice (No. 102) in 2009, was named the Borje Salming Award winner as the Swedish Elite League's top defenseman in 2011-12 after getting nine goals and eight assists in 41 games for Brynas. He will receive every opportunity to make the Predators this fall.


The 6-foot-1, 210-pound forward, Colin Wilson, reached the 30-point plateau for the second straight season, but Wilson could be capable of more. The Predators' first-round draft pick (No. 7) in 2008 watched a large chunk of the Stanley Cup Playoffs from the press box before finding himself on the top line during Nashville's second-round loss to the Phoenix Coyotes. What can sometimes get lost in the shuffle is that Wilson is 22 years old. Teams can never have enough offense, which is why the Predators likely will be counting on more production from the highly-capable forward. "He has the potential to be a great offensive player," Fisher told NHL.com during the playoffs. "He had a great start (last) year. He has a big body and is great down low. He sees the ice real well. His skill level is high. Sometimes it is hard for young guys. The grind of the schedule, it is tough mentally to figure things out. He's kind of trying to do that."


Nashville was one of four Central Division teams to record at least 100 points in 2011-12. The challenge of reaching that mark again becomes greater without Suter, but the Predators have always found ways to remain competitive. Much of that has to do with consistency, David Poile and Barry Trotz have been in their respective positions from the beginning of the franchise. The Predators have prided themselves on a strong defensive game and solid goaltending, and we should expect more of the same in 2012-13, even without Suter. After all, Weber, the team's captain and a finalist for the Norris Trophy last season, is signed to be in Music City for another 14 years. "Every great team that's been competitive for a lot of years or won Stanley Cups always has had a top defenseman, and Shea is here," Poile said. "You pair that with Pekka Rinne, who's one of the best goaltenders in the National Hockey League, you have a chance every night, every year, to compete."

Ryan Suter's departure for the Minnesota Wild leaves a gaping hole on the Nashville Predators' blue line, and the team will attempt to fill it internally. All indications are that Roman Josi will get the first crack at skating alongside captain Shea Weber, but it is also possible the job will one day belong to Ryan Ellis. The 21-year-old got his first taste of the NHL last season, when he tallied three goals and eight assists in 32 games after 18 points in 29 American Hockey League contests prompted a promotion from Milwaukee. Ellis also appeared in three Stanley Cup Playoff games for the Predators, who were ousted in the second round by the Phoenix Coyotes. "I was able to play in a handful of games," Ellis told NHL.com. "It was nice to kind of get my feet wet and see what it's all about. The season ended before we wanted it to, but it was nice to get that experience. I'm looking forward to having a strong camp and contributing more." He may not receive as many minutes as Suter did last season (Suter led the Predators by averaging 26:30 per game), but Ellis, who averaged less than 15 minutes per contest, will have to shoulder more of the load. He's certainly capable in the offensive end when you consider the Hamilton, Ontario, native scored 101 points (24 goals, 77 assists) in 58 games for the Windsor Spitfires of the Ontario Hockey League in 2010-11, his final season of junior hockey. He was named Canadian Hockey League Player of the Year and CHL Defenseman of the Year. "I think everyone is going to have to chip in more," Ellis told NHL.com when asked about potentially filling the void left by Suter's departure. "It's going to have to be done by committee. He's such a great player that we're all going to have to step it up." Ellis' booming shot from the point and his ability to quarterback the power play will serve the Predators well in 2012-13. Though it would be a thrill to be able skate alongside Weber, he and Ellis shoot right-handed. It's more likely Ellis will be paired with veteran Hal Gill, who signed a two-year contract in late June. "It would be awesome (to play with Weber), but since we're both right-handed, one of us would have to play the left side," Ellis said. "I'm just glad he's coming back because he's a world-class player. A guy like that is crucial to our success." Ellis also will be crucial to Nashville's success this season. One positive he can take from last season is that he already has some experience skating alongside Gill. "We obviously play two different styles of games," Ellis told the team's website of the 37-year-old when they were paired late last season. "He obviously deals one way with the speedy guys and I have to deal another way with the bigger guys. We've talked about a few different things and just how to kind of push guys off balance and whatnot, which is kind of big for me to kind of win those battles."


There have been some wild swings of emotion in the Music City in the past five months. The Nashville Predators looked like a Stanley Cup contender and rolled past the arch-nemesis Detroit Red Wings in the first round of the playoffs. But the Predators ran into the upstart Phoenix Coyotes in the second round, and a late night in Arizona for late-season additions Alexander Radulov and Andrei Kostitsyn didn't help matters. An early exit from the postseason led to a long offseason, when one-half of the team's top defense pairing signed a 13-year contract with the Minnesota Wild and the other a 14-year pact with the Philadelphia Flyers. Fortunately for Nashville, captain Shea Weber was a restricted free agent, so the Predators matched the Flyers' offer sheet and he remains with the organization. The Predators were a fashionable pick to win the Western Conference in April, but they won't be in September after losing Ryan Suter and Radulov, who returned to Russia. Here's the thing, though, not many of the other top contenders in the West improved, and the young Predators could be better than a lot of pundits will expect. Don't be surprised if Nashville ends up not only back in the playoffs, but near the top of the Central Division again in 2012-13.


Forwards

Martin Erat - Mike Fisher - Sergei Kostitsyn

Colin Wilson - David Legwand - Patric Hornqvist

Gabriel Bourque - Paul Gaustad - Matt Halischuk

Nick Spaling - Craig Smith - Brandon Yip

Brian McGrattan

Defensemen

Roman Josi - Shea Weber

Hal Gill - Kevin Klein

Mattias Ekholm - Ryan Ellis

Jonathon Blum

Goaltenders

Pekka Rinne

Chris Mason


NOTES: The top line and Legwand are pretty much set for Nashville, but coach Barry Trotz does not have a problem shifting players up and down the lineup; the Preds' depth and flexibility allows him to do just that. Nashville didn't have any 30-goal scorers last season, but had eight forwards (plus Weber) with at least 14. There isn't a lot of room here, but monitor Austin Watson's progress in camp, he could be a top-six forward in the near future. Taylor Beck is another player looking to earn a spot, though he will likely end up back with Milwaukee in the American Hockey League at least to start the season. Josi is the obvious candidate to replace Suter next to Weber. Having Gill for an entire season should help, and a step forward from Ellis would go a long way to replacing Suter's production at both ends of the ice. The last spot looks like a battle between Ekholm and Blum, and the loser might not stick around as the seventh d-man, Nashville would probably rather him play a lot at Milwaukee instead. Rinne now has the highest average annual value (AAV) among all NHL goaltenders, and the Predators are going to need him to be a top-five performer at the position.

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