5 - Washington Capitals

The ambition in Washington remains the same, but for the first time in several seasons when prognosticators compile a list of Stanley Cup contenders, the Capitals are not likely to be near the top. There are enough questions about the Capitals that despite five straight postseason appearances, there are likely to be several NHL teams considered better bets to claim the Stanley Cup in 2013. But if Washington can find enough answers, the Capitals just might squeeze their way back into the League's elite. One offseason ago Washington general manager George McPhee was feted for his alterations, adding Tomas Vokoun, Joel Ward, Roman Hamrlik and Jeff Halpern to a club that had just finished back-to-back regular seasons atop the Eastern Conference. A turbulent campaign followed, as the Capitals failed to win the Southeast Division title for the first time in five years. Some of the enthusiasm from upsetting the defending Stanley Cup champion in the first round was stunted by the Capitals' passive style of play, and coach Dale Hunter's decision to limit playing time for stars Alex Ovechkin and Alexander Semin. While Hunter's way kept the Capitals competitive, ultimately the same lucky bounce that helped them defeat the Boston Bruins was part of their undoing in Game 7 against the New York Rangers, and another season without Washington in the second half of the NHL's postseason came and went. The narrative in Washington during the past five years has always seemed to revolve around the process instead of the results. Bruce Boudreau's Capitals were a revelation, but were dismissed by some pundits for their overly offensive approach.

When they weren't able to solve the postseason puzzle (and inexplicably began the 2010-11 season in an offensive slump), the pressure to conform to a more traditional approach won out. The goals against in the past two seasons have receded, but so have the goals for. Boudreau tried to change the Washington philosophy, then after he was fired Hunter arrived and pushed the Capitals in that direction even further. It seemed an uneasy alliance, as Washington's offensively gifted players tried to adhere to Hunter's expectations. Shortly after the season ended, Hunter decided to return to southwestern Ontario and both of the family businesses, the London Knights and the farm. One of his former teammates in Washington, Adam Oates, will replace him. For the fifth time in McPhee's tenure, the GM hired a coach with no experience at the position in the NHL. Oates is an interesting case, though, with no prior head coaching experience at any major level. Boudreau earned a reputation as an aggressive, offense-oriented coach during his years in the minors. The expectation when Hunter arrived was his defense-first philosophy would be a stark change, and it proved to be. Oates has been an assistant coach in the NHL for three seasons, in 2011-12 for the New Jersey Devils. His reputation behind the bench has yet to really be formed. Given all of the attention to Washington's style of play in recent seasons, a fresh start might be the best thing for the Capitals. "When you look at the Finals this year, you saw two teams that were basically in-your-face teams, all over the ice," Oates said of the Devils and Los Angeles Kings. "I really feel the game today is territory. You have to establish territory and protect it. I look at the Caps lineup and the talent level and I don't see any reason why we can't push the pace and be an aggressive team but at the same time not sacrificing defense. It requires commitment all over the ice."
Additions: C Mike Ribeiro, LW Wojtek Wolski, RW Joey Crabb, D Jack Hillen, C Ryan Stoa
Subtractions: RW Alexander Semin, G Tomas Vokoun, D Dennis Wideman, C Jeff Halpern, C Cody Eakin
UFAs: RW Mike Knuble
Promotion candidates: D Tomas Kundratek, D Cameron Schilling, LW Stanislav Galiev

There is still plenty of talent for Oates to work with. Alexander Semin signed with the division rival Carolina Hurricanes, but the Capitals added Mike Ribeiro in a trade on the first day of the NHL Draft in June. Other stalwarts Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green remain, while a second wave of young players Karl Alzner, John Carlson and Braden Holtby have moved into prominent roles. Ribeiro is McPhee's lone marquee addition of this offseason, though there is plenty of salary cap space for another if he chooses. Veterans Tomas Vokoun, Dennis Wideman, Mike Knuble and Halpern will not return. Holtby and Michal Neuvirth will handle the goaltending, and each has led the club into the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in one of the past two seasons. Dmitry Orlov was a regular as a rookie for much of last season before falling out of favor for Hunter's staff, but he's expected to replace Wideman, with free agent Jack Hillen added for defensive depth. The big questions are up front, where the Capitals need to replace Semin and, to a lesser extent, Knuble. They also need more from Ovechkin, and better health for Backstrom and Green. When training camp begins, the focus will almost certainly be on how Oates expects his club to play, and his relationship with Ovechkin, the two-time League MVP who has had the two lowest goal and point totals of his career in the past two seasons. Other teams in the Southeast, particularly Carolina and the Tampa Bay Lightning, could be much-improved this season, but expectations in Washington will be to secure a fifth division title in six years. Should Oates be able to find some sort of middle ground between the firewagon days at the beginning of the Boudreau era and the more passive play from last spring, he might be the guy who helps the Capitals to their first significant postseason success since he was a center on the 1997-98 team that reached the Stanley Cup Final. "Our philosophy has been to go in there and to try to find the difference makers, try to find the players with the most upside and really swing for the fences," McPhee said when Oates was hired. "And that's what we tried to do here. We believe Adam Oates has the most upside and can be a real difference maker."

From the time coach Bruce Boudreau arrived in November 2008 until the 2010 playoffs, the Washington Capitals wowed with their offense while at times the defense and goaltending proved less than satisfactory. In two of the past three postseasons, offense has become the problem for Washington. First it was goalie Jaroslav Halak and the Montreal Canadiens' penalty-killers in 2010, then it was a wide-range of issues from player performance to team philosophy with new coach Dale Hunter in 2012, but as the Capitals’ ability to prevent goals has improved, they have struggled to score enough when it counts. Much of the intrigue with the 2012-13 Capitals again, almost strangely, revolves around offense. Goalie Braden Holtby had a great postseason, and though both are still young, he and Michal Neuvirth should be a solid tandem. The defense could be better at helping the goalies in their own end with the subtraction of Dennis Wideman, the addition of Jack Hillen, and a return to regular playing time for Dmitry Orlov.

Washington’s “Young Guns”, Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green and Alexander Semin, combined for 370 points in 2009-10. Ovechkin and Backstrom each passed 100, Semin scored 40 goals, and Green led all NHL defensemen in goals and points. Ovechkin has slipped from 109 points that year to 85 in 2010-11 then 65 last season. Backstrom went from 101 to 65 to 44, though he was limited to 42 games last season because of a concussion. Green has played 81 games in the past two seasons because of multiple injuries, and has 31 points in those contests. Semin is gone to the Carolina Hurricanes, with Mike Ribeiro arriving from the Dallas Stars in a trade to play on a line Backstrom doesn’t center. For Washington to become an elite offensive team again, Ovechkin, Backstrom and Green need to stay healthy and produce at a level at least close to what they once did.

Backstrom and Ribeiro will center the top two lines, with Ovechkin and Brouwer as locks to be alongside them. The other two wings are far less certain. Brooks Laich scored 69 goals in three years as the No. 2 left wing behind Ovechkin, but he has transitioned to center and the Capitals would like to leave him there to anchor the team’s No. 3 line. Ovechkin scored 38 goals last season, and with Semin gone, the second-highest returning total is Jason Chimera’s 20, which was three more than he had in any of his eight previous NHL seasons. Chimera could be a top-six candidate, but like Laich is more of a fallback option at this point. A pair of players who never really nailed down the No. 2 center job, Marcus Johansson and Mathieu Perreault, could be the first to audition for the spots. Johansson had 14 goals and 46 points last season, and Perreault had 16 and 30 as each earned prime ice time when Backstrom was injured. Free agent Wojtek Wolski and prospect Stanislav Galiev are possibilities. Another scoring wing or two looks like Washington’s biggest need on paper as the season approaches. If the internal candidates do not produce, the Capitals have salary-cap space for general manager George McPhee to add another top-six forward.

Washington entered the 2011-12 season with potentially the top set of offensive defensemen in the League. Green, Wideman and John Carlson all could be the No. 1 offensive option for some teams. Green’s season was again derailed by injury, and he was not a factor offensively. Carlson scuffled at times during his sophomore season but looked like a top-pair defenseman again late in the season and during the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Wideman made the All-Star team because of his offensive numbers, but slumped in the second half and was a mess in his own end in the postseason. The Capitals will replace Wideman with Orlov, who has some offensive potential but probably isn't at Carlson’s level. Karl Alzner, Roman Hamrlik and Jeff Schultz aren’t going to fill up the scoresheet, but Green and Carlson could be among the top offensive tandems in the League. It will be interesting to see how new coach Adam Oates deploys Green, Carlson and Orlov on the power play, when Ovechkin was manning one point for nearly two minutes, that didn’t leave a lot of ice time to go around last season.

Three teams have converted at least 25 percent of its power plays in the past 15 years, two of them were the Washington Capitals in 2008-09 and 2009-10 (the Detroit Red Wings in 2008-09 was the other). Power-play proficiency is down across the NHL the past two seasons, but Washington has finished tied for 15th and tied for 18th since leading the League in 2009-10. Enter Oates, who was an assistant coach in charge of the power play for the New Jersey Devils. Granted, the Devils (at 14th) barely finished above the Capitals, but Oates didn’t have as much talent to work with (particularly from the defense and with forward Travis Zajac out most of the season). Whatever Ovechkin’s relationship was with Boudreau at the end of his tenure or during Hunter’s brief regime, there is a good chance Oates could curry favor with his captain by showing him video of those 12 postseason power-play goals the Devils had in the first three playoff rounds (one in particular against the rival New York Rangers was majestic). Ovechkin had at least 36 power-play points in his first five seasons before 24 and 23 in the past two. If Oates can boost the power play, that alone might be the difference between his first playoff game as an NHL coach being at home or on the road.

It might be less of a certainty that Washington is a playoff team in 2012-13, but it will be expected. For a franchise that hasn’t reached the Eastern Conference Finals despite all its regular-season success in the past five seasons, hiring someone with no head coaching experience at any level is a curious move. Oates was a great NHL player, and like Hunter starred in Washington, but he has three years of coaching experience at this level as an assistant and none as the lead guy. What’s more, neither of his assistants have head coaching experience. Like Oates, Calle Johansson is one of the best players in franchise history, but his resume has one season, with Frolunda of the Swedish Elite League in 2006-07, of coaching on it. He’s been working as an analyst for a Swedish television station. Oates’ other assistant, Tim Hunter, has been in the NHL as an assistant coach for 13 years (including in Washington when Oates and Johansson were playing), but he’s never been a head coach. McPhee’s track record is clear, he’s not afraid to hire someone without NHL head coaching experience. In fact, each of the five coaches the GM has hired in D.C. has been a first-timer. But an entire staff having never been a head coach, at any level of professional hockey, could be risky even by his standards.

Braden Holtby was a revelation in the postseason, showing poise and confidence far beyond what would be expected of a 22-year-old with 21 NHL games before the 2012 playoffs started. Washington played 13 games that were decided by one goal, and Holtby was fantastic throughout. It seems obvious he would be the No. 1 goaltender as the 2012-13 season beckons, but assuming such would mean ignoring the past five years of history at the position in Washington. Simply put, the player who was the team’s No. 1 goaltender during the previous postseason has not held that same distinction by the time Game 1 of the next postseason arrived four years running. Cristobal Huet left after 2008 as a free agent. Semyon Varlamov took the job from Jose Theodore during the 2009 playoffs, then gave it back in part because of injuries. Varlamov again grabbed the job during the 2010 playoffs only to see Neuvirth become Boudreau’s man for the 2011 postseason. Holtby wasn’t even on the roster for most of last season, and Tomas Vokoun was the team’s No. 1 when healthy. Holtby was thrust into the spotlight because Vokoun and Neuvirth were injured when the postseason began. Since Olaf Kolzig ceded the No. 1 job to Huet near the end of the 2007-08 season, no one has kept the title for very long.

There have been times in the past two seasons when the Washington Capitals looked like just another pretty good hockey team, not the unique bunch that could light up opposing goaltenders with skill and clinical precision in the years before that. Washington’s system has changed on a couple of occasions, and a pair of coaches tried to shift the philosophy away from those halcyon days of run-and-gun hockey. But one of the biggest reasons the Capitals haven’t been what they once were offensively has been the absence and/or diminished effectiveness of defenseman Mike Green. In a two-season span from 2008-10, Green had 50 goals and 149 points. He was the first NHL defenseman with at least 18 goals and 70 points in back-to-back seasons since Boston Bruins star Ray Bourque in 1992-93 and 1993-94. The past two seasons have been filled with frustration and disappointment, concussions, an ankle injury, and a lingering groin injury have limited Green to 82 regular-season games, and a shoulder injury knocked him out of the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs. "It's unfortunate that the last couple of years I've suffered from injuries, but I believe I'm over them, I think I've got them all out of my system," Green told reporters when he signed a new three-year contract last month. "I think [the Capitals] are happy that I'm committed to the hockey team and doing the things I have to do to be the best I can." Alex Ovechkin was one of the game’s best players, and Nicklas Backstrom was becoming an elite center, but what helped set Washington apart was Green putting up offensive numbers that hadn’t been seen since before the neutral zone trap rose to prominence. He could carry the puck from end to end, or he could jump up and display the offensive acumen of a top-line forward. Green would perform better the more minutes he played, and he became the most dynamic offensive defenseman in hockey. That title is elsewhere now. Green has 31 points in the past two seasons and he didn’t impart his will onto to games last season after returning from the injuries the way he had in the past. Green has had an offseason to regroup, mentally and physically. The Capitals weren’t afraid to show their faith in his ability to regain his Norris Trophy-nominee form, agreeing to a contract that will pay the 26-year-old an average of almost $6.1 million for the next three seasons. Without a return to form by Green, the Capitals probably are about what they were last year, good enough to make the playoffs, and win a round if they get enough breaks. Should Green find some luck with his health and regain his ability to control games with his offensive presence, well, the Capitals could be back among the top teams in the Eastern Conference. "I don't think I have to prove anything," Green said. "I think that personally for my own mental state that I get back to that and almost prove to myself that I can do it. I know I'm able to do it; it's just a matter of me going out and doing it."

Say this about the 2011-12 season for the Washington Capitals: It did not lack intrigue. After four straight division titles and back-to-back years as the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, the Capitals were all over the place last season. They won the first seven games before losing 10 of the next 15 to cost coach Bruce Boudreau his job. The transition to Dale Hunter’s preferred playing style wasn’t exactly smooth, and in the end the Capitals might have missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs if not for the 7-0-0 start. Still, they had a chance to win the Southeast for a fifth straight year on the last day of the season, but the Florida Panthers ended their reign. Washington nearly salvaged the disappointing season by upsetting the defending Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins in the first round and pushing the top-seeded New York Rangers to seven games in round two. In the end, it was another season when the Capitals did not make to the second half of the playoff bracket, something that has yet to happen during their era of regular-season success. One of the team’s top four players from the past five years, Alexander Semin, is gone. So, too, are veterans Mike Knuble, Tomas Vokoun, Dennis Wideman and Jeff Halpern. Washington made one big move this offseason, trading for center Mike Ribeiro, but the other additions are long shots to be impact players. Offensive numbers were down across the board in D.C. last season. Hunter decided the NHL wasn’t for him as a coach and he went back to the Ontario Hockey League. He’s been replaced by another former Washington star, Adam Oates. The team is expected to regain some of its offensive prowess with Oates that went missing while Boudreau then Hunter tried to make the club more defense-oriented. Whether or not the Capitals have the ability to score like they once did remains to be seen.

Forwards

Alex Ovechkin - Nicklas Backstrom - Marcus Johansson

Mathieu Perreault - Mike Ribeiro - Troy Brouwer

Jason Chimera - Brooks Laich - Joel Ward

Matt Hendricks - Jay Beagle - Joey Crabb

Wojtek Wolski

Defensemen

Karl Alzner - John Carlson

Roman Hamrlik - Mike Green

Dmitry Orlov - Jeff Schultz

John Erskine - Jack Hillen

Goaltenders

Braden Holtby

Michal Neuvirth

NOTES: The permutations for Washington’s forwards seem almost endless. Adding Ribeiro fills a huge hole, but losing Semin has created another. Ovechkin, Backstrom and Brouwer are the top player at each position, but Brouwer didn’t quite fit on right wing the way Knuble did in previous seasons. Oates could split Backstrom and Ovechkin to find more balance. Johansson has played well on Backstrom’s wing, so that could work. Perrault, like Johansson, is a natural center, and Laich is the team’s second- or third-best option at wing but he’s also become a prototypical No. 3 center. Chimera had his best season and could be a fringe top-six guy, but he is more suited for the third line as well. Other options to fill in on the wing in the top six include Wolski and Stanislav Galiev, but not Evgeny Kuznetsov, who would have been an easy choice to replace Semin had he not re-upped with his KHL club. Got all that? If the Capitals can figure out the top six without needing Laich or Chimera, then the bottom six could be among the League’s best. Chimera-Laich-Ward was a dominant third line early in the season, and Hendricks and Beagle were among the team’s best players in the postseason. Orlov will be expected to replace Wideman in the top six, and this group needs bounce-back seasons from Green and Schultz. Where Washington’s defense ranks could fluctuate wildly, pending the play of Green in particular. Holtby likely will begin training camp as the No. 1 goaltender, but that job has changed hands quite a bit in recent seasons and Neuvirth will be eager to try to reclaim it.