Tuesday, 15 January 2013

1 - Colorado Avalanche

With three weeks to play in the 2011-12 NHL season, the Colorado Avalanche were in the mix for the final Western Conference playoff spot. Then, all of a sudden, they weren't. Six losses in the final seven games meant the Avalanche missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs for a second straight season and fourth time in the past six However, an early summer doesn't translate into a lost season. The Avalanche continued to develop a very strong core of young players in 2011-12, finishing with 88 points and a 41-35-6 record, 20 points higher than they finished 2010-11. Gabriel Landeskog, 19 years old, won the Calder Trophy, and linemate Ryan O'Reilly, 21, led the Avalanche in assists (37) and points (55). Colorado's most productive defenseman, Erik Johnson, and its starting goalie, Semyon Varlamov, are both 24. Colorado confirmed its trust in this core during the summer by re-signing many of its own free agents. Even before general manager Greg Sherman began the consolidation of players, he reaffirmed his confidence in coach Joe Sacco by signing him to a two-year extension. Sacco has had a roller-coaster three seasons at the helm. After a first-round playoff exit in 2009-10, the Avalanche had an abysmal 2010-11 season, finishing 14th in the West with 68 points, before their narrow playoff miss (seven points from eighth place). Questions persist about Sacco's ability to get the most out of a young roster, but an encouraging second-half surge in 2011-12 meant he would be back this season. "Joe has earned the opportunity to lead this young team," Sherman told reporters at the time. "Our club made significant strides this season and we look forward to continuing that next season." Next up was veteran leader and unrestricted free agent Milan Hejduk, who signed a one-year, $2 million deal. The 36-year-old had his least productive season in nearly a decade, with 14 goals and 23 assists, but his value as a leader in the locker room cannot be understated. Sherman extended unrestricted free agents David Jones, Shane O'Brien and Cody McLeod. Only Jones, at four years, $16 million for someone with a 50-point ceiling, might be getting more than what might have been expected. Sherman also locked up all of his key restricted free agents. Former No. 1 pick and blueline scoring leader Johnson (26 points) re-upped for four years, joining Matt Duchene and Ryan Wilson in accepting conservative deals to stay in Colorado. Duchene, whom the Avalanche are hoping will blossom into a franchise player despite a down year in 2011-12, signed a relatively modest two-year, $7 million contract. Colorado did lose center Jay McClement and Peter Mueller to free agency. McClement's loss could prove critical; he anchored a penalty kill that improved from last in the NHL in 2010-11 to 12th last season. Sherman nabbed John Mitchell as McClement's tentative replacement, but Mitchell has barely played on special teams in the past two seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Rangers.
Additions: RW PA Parenteau, D Greg Zanon, C John Mitchell
Subtractions: C Peter Mueller, C Jay McClement, C Kevin Porter, C Ryan Stoa, G Cedrick Desjardins
UFAs: LW David Van Der Gulik, RW Joakim Lindstrom
Promotion candidates: D Tyson Barrie


As soon as free agency opened, Colorado wasted no time picking up winger PA Parenteau from the New York Islanders. Parenteau, at 29 a veteran on this team, had a huge 2011-12, scoring 67 points (18 goals, 49 assists) as the sidekick to budding star John Tavares. "PA is a skilled winger who will instantly improve our offense," Sherman told reporters. "He's a dynamic player who will help our power play and complement our young centers." The young center in question is likely Duchene, whose frustrating campaign – 14 goals and 28 points after a 67-point season in 2010-11 – reflected a team-wide struggle to score. Colorado finished 25th in goals (199), and Landeskog led the Avalanche with a relatively meager 22. To that point, Sherman signed Steve Downie and Jamie McGinn, players acquired in trade-deadline deals who injected offense over the second half of 2011-12, to two-year deals. Downie came over from the Tampa Bay Lightning and joined Reilly and Landeskog to fill out one of the League's most explosive young lines. McGinn set career highs for goals (20) and assists (17) splitting time between the San Jose Sharks and Colorado, and his 13 points for the Avalanche from March 1 to season's end tied Paul Stastny for most on the team. "Jamie made an immediate impact from the time he joined our organization," Sherman said. "We look forward to Jamie building upon last season's performance and are pleased to have agreed to contract terms." Though O'Reilly has yet to be signed, the rest of the key players are in place. With the addition of Parenteau and another season under the young players' belts, the Avalanche should be an improved team in 2012-13. Time will tell if that improvement is enough to lead Colorado back to the playoffs.


After an offseason spent extending contracts and re-signing key free agents, the Colorado Avalanche will enter 2012-13 looking very similar to the team that narrowly missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season: very young, very raw, and very talented. Will another year of experience for the young core be enough to put Colorado over the top? Can they survive a grueling season in the Western Conference? Can goaltending, defense and offense put it all together and return the Avalanche to the playoffs for the first time in three seasons?

It was a relatively quiet offseason for Colorado in terms of trades and free agency, and some fans are undoubtedly concerned that not enough was done to improve the Avs' 11th-place finish in the West. Upon closer inspection, the organization took a few steps – albeit small ones – toward a return to the postseason. Two trade deadline deals injected a vital boost into a tiring offense. Steve Downie joined from the Tampa Bay Lightning and scored seven points in his first four games, tying Theo Fleury for the best start in team history. Colorado then picked up Jamie McGinn from the San Jose Sharks, and his 13 points from March 1 to season's end were tied for the team lead (with Paul Stastny). Colorado preserved all the pieces of its offensive puzzle, signing McGinn and Downie to two-year deals and bringing back defensive-scoring leader Erik Johnson, potential franchise player Matt Duchene, and steady winger David Jones. Only Ryan O'Reilly remains unsigned. Add PA Parenteau's acquisition in free agency and Colorado's offense is looking a lot more potent this season than last.


The No. 2 pick in the 2011 NHL Draft, Gabriel Landeskog, made a seamless transition to the next level, earning a place on the Avalanche with four goals in his first eight games. Unlike No. 1 pick and Calder Trophy nominee Ryan Nugent-Hopkins of the Edmonton Oilers, Landeskog stayed healthy and consistent all season. He led rookies in shots on goal (270), tied Nugent-Hopkins for most points (52), and got his due when he was named rookie of the year. Can Landeskog continue that pace into 2012-13? He played in all 82 games in 2011-12, 20 more than he had ever played in a season. He went on to take the assistant captain post for Team Sweden at this spring's World Championships, where the 19-year-old forward had a goal and four assists in eight games. Recent history would point to a letdown. Jeff Skinner of the Carolina Hurricanes scored 20 fewer points in his sophomore campaign, and the 2009-10 Calder winner, Buffalo Sabres defenseman Tyler Myers, saw his plus-minus drop from plus-13 to 0, and he scored 11 fewer points. However, Landeskog should be comfortable if the young, exciting line of he, O'Reilly and Downie remains intact.


The major concern surrounding Semyon Varlamov in his two seasons with the Washington Capitals was one of fitness. On multiple occasions when he was thought to be their next starter, the injury bug struck, and eventually young goalies Michal Neuvirth and Braden Holtby surpassed "Varly" as Washington's goalie-in-waiting. Now, after a full season in Colorado, the question is no longer one of health but of ability. Varlamov has a chance to pin down the starting goaltending job for the Avalanche. Will he meet the organization's expectations in 2012-13? After a strong start with the Avalanche in 2011-12, Varlamov went 2-8-1 in November and was pulled in favor of aging goalie Jean-Sebastien Giguere. Despite Giguere's repeated insistence that Varlamov was the first choice for Colorado, it was Giguere who put Colorado into playoff contention before a groin injury in February gave Varlamov the starter's job again. The Russian kept the Avs in the race but visibly faded while going later into an NHL season than he ever had, losing five of his final six starts. For the season, Varlamov posted a 26-24-3 record with a .913 save percentage and 2.59 goals-against average. He won each of his eight shootouts, and allowing two goals on 24 attempts. General manager Greg Sherman made no offseason moves at the position, suggesting the organization believes in Varlamov and in the mentor/backup qualities of 35-year-old Giguere. However, with their American Hockey League affiliate, Lake Erie, bursting with goaltending talent, Varlamov's No. 1 title is not a foregone conclusion.
When the Avalanche signed PA Parenteau to a four-year, $16 million deal on the opening day of free agency, there was more to the deal than met the eye. Yes, Colorado was in need of a creative winger who could produce offensively, and Parenteau was a natural fit. The 29-year-old exploded in 2011-12, his second full season in the NHL, scoring 18 goals and 49 assists for the New York Islanders. More important than his individual numbers was Parenteau's ability to help John Tavares realize his full potential. The former No. 1 pick thrived alongside Parenteau, hitting the 30-goal mark for the first time and earning a trip to his first All-Star Game. Matt Duchene is a similar player to Tavares and is coming off a disastrous, injury-shortened 2011-12 campaign when he scored 28 points. A skillful winger might be just what Duchene needs to relocate his offensive touch.

Joe Sacco already made the playoffs, in 2009-10, his first season coaching at the NHL level after holding a number of posts within the Avalanche organization. With low expectations, Sacco and the Avs went 43-30-9 and had the single biggest point increase (26) season-over-season since the 2000 expansion. Ever since, however, Sacco has underwhelmed. Colorado finished further back in 2010-11 than they went up the year before, ending with 68 points. The Avalanche finished better in 2011-12, challenging for a playoff spot after savvy acquisitions at the trade deadline. Just as a very young team was finding its groove, they were exhausted after a long season, and the playoffs again eluded them. Sacco appears to know how to get the most out of his players, but in the grueling Western Conference, Colorado will need all of its roster, young and old, clicking at a high level. With another season of experience and a two-year contract extension padding his confidence, Sacco can use this season to bring Colorado back into the playoffs.

When Jay McClement arrived in Colorado at trade deadline in 2011, the Avalanche were the reluctant owners of the worst penalty kill in the NHL. They finished that season last in penalty killing at 76.1 percent, and allowed the most power-play goals (75). McClement's contribution to that turnaround cannot be overstated. The center's 3:06 per game of shorthanded ice time led all Avalanche skaters and was third in the League among forwards. Landeskog was a distant second, with 1:20 per game. In short, there is no replacing McClement on the penalty kill, and the Avalanche know it. But there are positives for the Avs. Colorado enjoyed a top-tier penalty kill last season, but it might have come at the expense of a good offense. By bringing Parenteau over from the Islanders and keeping the talented young core intact, Sherman and the front office clearly focused on the offensive zone. Jan Hejda and Ryan O'Byrne are back to anchor the blueline, and with a good training camp, a prospect like Brad Malone could take over McClement's shorthanded role. Of all the personnel questions facing the Colorado Avalanche heading into this season, the biggest is Matt Duchene. Yes, there are concerns about a slow, sluggish defense. There is a No. 1 goalie (Semyon Varlamov) whose stamina and ability remain unproven. And there is a Calder Trophy winner (Gabriel Landeskog) in danger of a sophomore slump. But none of those anxieties is as pressing as Duchene. Can he stay healthy? Can he relocate his confidence? Can he buckle down and find his scoring touch within a more potent offense? Colorado general manager Greg Sherman showed the organization was without the answers this summer by signing the forward to a modest, two-year, $7 million contract. The conservative extension reflects the main question: Was Duchene's 2011-12 season an aberration or a sign of things to come? Duchene was a disappointment last season. For the first time in his three-year NHL career, he missed time because of injuries, first to his left knee then to his right ankle. They nagged him throughout the spring and hampered his production. "My weapons are my legs, and I didn't have them," Duchene said after the season. "I kind of had to learn a new way to play. It was a perfect storm. When everyone else was elevating their game, it was pretty much me starting from scratch." In 58 games, Duchene managed 14 goals and 14 assists. The spotlight passed over him and shined instead on Landeskog and Ryan O'Reilly, younger players enjoying bigger seasons. When Jamie McGinn and Steve Downie joined the Avalanche at the trade deadline to give the offense a much-needed boost, Duchene was one of the few who failed to benefit. The season-long stumble came as a surprise, following a huge 2010-11 season in which he had 27 goals and 40 assists as the offensive focal point on a struggling team. The addition of Landeskog and the emergence of O'Reilly, another top-level center to go along with Duchene and Paul Stastny, may have hampered Duchene's output. With three talented centers and a dearth of wingers, coach Joe Sacco juggled the forward lines often, looking for the right fit, even moving Duchene to wing at one point. The lack of consistency disrupted Duchene's rhythm from October through the season. The addition of wing PA Parenteau should help Duchene settle into the center position. Parenteau helped John Tavares flourish over the past two seasons for the New York Islanders, and a creative, steady linemate might be just what Duchene needs. Tavares and Duchene share many similarities: position, age, talent level, and, until last season, point production. The Avalanche must wait to see if Parenteau's play can bridge that widening gap. Last season's skid could be a blessing in disguise over the long-term. When Duchene surged for 67 points in 2010-11, Colorado as a team managed 68 in the standings. Last season, the Avalanche narrowly missed the Stanley Cup
Playoffs, but Duchene struggled. A frustrating season spent trying to skate circles around opponents should help show him that a more direct approach is the right one. At 21 years old, Duchene clearly has some maturing to do, especially if he hopes to lead Colorado back to the postseason this season. "As much as it's been hell, individually, for me this year for the second half, I've also learned a ton," Duchene said after the season. "You don't get better in the good times. You get better in the bad times."
 
There were several bright spots during the 2011-12 season for the Colorado Avalanche, but also some disappointments as general manager Greg Sherman tries to build a consistent winner again in Denver. Gabriel Landeskog was the League's top rookie, and Ryan O'Reilly took a big step toward stardom. Sherman made a bold move to acquire a young goalie, Semyon Varlamov, and he was able to stay healthy (a big knock against him with the Washington Capitals). Still, Colorado's more established young talent, Matt Duchene, Paul Stastny and Erik Johnson, didn't produce to their potential, and the Avalanche missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the fourth time in six seasons. Sherman landed one of the top free-agent forwards available this offseason and bolstered the team's depth on defense. Given another year of development for one of the youngest teams in the NHL, it could mean a return to the postseason, something that was a given not that long ago in the Mile High City.
Forwards
Milan Hejduk - Matt Duchene - PA Parenteau
Gabriel Landeskog - Ryan O'Reilly - Steve Downie
Jamie McGinn - Paul Stastny - David Jones
Cody McLeod - John Mitchell - Chuck Kobasew
Mark Olver
Defensemen
Jan Hejda - Erik Johnson
Shane O'Brien - Stefan Elliott
Ryan Wilson - Ryan O'Byrne
Greg Zanon - Matt Hunwick
Goaltenders
Semyon Varlamov
Jean-Sebastien Giguere

NOTES: Before last season, O'Reilly was this franchise's Jordan Staal, a really nice No. 3 center behind two with bigger pedigrees. He took a big step forward last year while the others did not. The Landeskog-O'Reilly-Downie trio had great chemistry at the end of the season, and the Avalanche have the depth to ice three formidable scoring lines. Parenteau worked well with John Tavares on the New York Islanders, so he could be moving alongside the player taken one pick after Tavares at the top of the 2009 NHL Draft, Duchene. Stastny has the talent (and the salary) to be more than a No. 3 center obviously, but Colorado could play that trio more than a typical third unit and give him ample time on the power play to augment his role. The Avalanche have seven defensemen on one-way contracts, but Elliott and Tyson Barrie are talented enough to force their way into the everyday lineup, and the arrival of Duncan Siemens is on the horizon. NHL-quality depth on defense will not be a problem after adding Zanon and with the expected development of those two prospects. Varlamov had elite potential for years, and he was finally able to stay relatively healthy last season. The problem for Varlamov was Giguere actually outplayed him for a while. The Avalanche re-upped Giguere for another year, so expect this to be a strong tandem through 2013-14.



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