Thursday, 10 January 2013

1 - Toronto Maple Leafs

For a team that now holds the unwanted label of team with the longest playoff drought in the NHL, there wasn't a major move made by Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brian Burke this offseason. At least, not yet. After missing the postseason for the seventh time in a row, the Leafs acquired forward James van Riemsdyk in exchange for defenseman Luke Schenn in a trade with the Philadelphia Flyers. The move bolstered an offense that scored the 10th-most goals in the NHL, but depleted the defense corps of a team that allowed the second-most goals. That's why the Leafs reportedly are interested in acquiring goaltender Roberto Luongo from the Vancouver Canucks. Luongo has become expendable with backup Cory Schneider signing a three-year, $12 million contract this summer after taking the starting job during the postseason. Last season, the Leafs' goaltending duo of James Reimer and Jonas Gustavsson (who left for the Detroit Red Wings as a free agent) combined for a .902 save percentage in 76 games. Luongo, 33, would bring 339 career victories, an Olympic gold medal and 61 games of playoff experience to Toronto. Of course, the Leafs would likely need to ship players with NHL experience to Vancouver to make a deal happen, which would alter a roster that's been left mostly intact. If the Leafs don't make the deal, Burke has confidence Reimer will rediscover the form of two seasons ago that earned him a three-year, $5.4 million contract. He's also comfortable with using 25-year-old Ben Scrivens as the backup. "We are prepared to go forward on that basis," Burke told reporters. "If we can upgrade at the goaltending position, and at a reasonable price, we'll do it. But we are prepared (to go with Reimer and Scrivens). I believe in James Reimer. He's young, he's athletic, I believe in this kid. If we have to start like that, we will."

Burke did address one concern this offseason by acquiring van Riemsdyk, who will likely get a shot at playing center with the Leafs after serving mostly as a winger with the Flyers. The 23-year-old is coming off a season in which he posted 11 goals and 13 assists in 41 games. He missed half the campaign with various injuries that included a concussion, a groin ailment, and a foot issue that required surgery. But he'll get a fresh start in Toronto that could involve centering the top line with Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul. "I have played it a little bit in the past, and any time you can be a little more versatile as a player, it is definitely a good thing," van Riemsdyk told reporters. "I'm excited about that." But van Riemsdyk, who hasn't played center consistently since his college days at New Hampshire, knows getting adjusted to the middle will be a challenge. "When you are used to something it is second nature, so when you are out there not thinking and just playing, that is when you are at your best," van Riemsdyk said. "(It's just) a matter of getting some reps in there and sure I will be fine." The rest of Burke's offseason moves thus far can be classified as minor. Besides Gustavsson and Schenn, also departed are forwards Joey Crabb, Colby Armstrong and Philippe Dupuis. Crabb, who had 11 goals in 67 games and was tied for second on the Leafs in game-winning goals with four, signed a free-agent contract with the Washington Capitals.
Additions: LW James van Riemsdyk, C Jay McClement
Subtractions: D Luke Schenn, G Jonas Gustavsson, RW Colby Armstrong, RW Joey Crabb
UFAs: LW Jay Rosehill
Promotion candidates: LW Jerry D’Amigo, C Joe Colborne, C Nazem Kadri, D Jesse Blacker
 
When a team hasn't reached the Stanley Cup Playoffs in seven years, there are always going to be more questions than answers surrounding the club. That's the case for the Toronto Maple Leafs, who, thanks to the Florida Panthers qualifying for the playoffs last season, have the longest current drought in the NHL. The Leafs haven't had more than 85 points in a season since 2007-08 and enter the season coached by Randy Carlyle, who took over in March. So far this summer, the biggest move has been to trade defenseman Luke Schenn to the Philadelphia Flyers for forward James van Riemsdyk. General manager Brian Burke may need to have another deal up his sleeve if the Leafs are to get to the playoffs.
As things stand now, James Reimer will be the man between the pipes with Ben Scrivens as the backup. But it's possible that not long after this paragraph is published, the Leafs could make a deal for a new No. 1 goaltender. The Leafs are potentially interested in swinging a deal for the Canucks' Roberto Luongo, who has become expendable in Vancouver with backup Cory Schneider signing a three-year, $12 million deal this summer. If Luongo comes to Toronto, he immediately becomes the unquestioned No. 1 goaltender. Another name has been mentioned in reports involving the Leafs, the Los Angeles Kings' Jonathan Bernier. The former No. 1 pick could use a new home with Jonathan Quick signing a 10-year deal and has the potential to be a starter in the NHL. But with limited experience, even if Bernier was to join the Leafs, he may not necessarily supplant Reimer right away.
There's no denying the 23-year-old and second pick of the 2007 NHL Draft has loads of potential, but how van Riemsdyk acclimates himself to a new position will go a long way toward determining the Leafs' success this season. Van Riemsdyk played almost exclusively on the wing with the Flyers, a team that has plenty of depth down the middle. But the Leafs could use help at center, and Carlyle said he will look at van Riemsdyk there during training camp. If the move works, the Leafs could have a deadly top line with Phil Kessel, Joffrey Lupul and van Riemsdyk. But if it doesn't, the Leafs will spend another season looking for a top-line pivot.
The Leafs have plenty of youth in the organization, and now wouldn't be a bad time for those players to start realizing their potential. Nazem Kadri, 21, was the seventh pick of the 2009 NHL Draft, but hasn't been able to stick with the big club in two stints the past two seasons. The center has loads of talent, and if he can put it all together in training camp and win a spot with the Leafs, he could have a breakout season. Matt Frattin, 24, had eight goals and seven assists in 51 games last season with the Leafs, his first extended time in the NHL. His name has been mentioned in the Bernier rumors, but the 24-year-old who scored 36 goals in 44 games at North Dakota in 2009-10 has a bright future. Jake Gardiner, 21, looked like a seasoned pro as a rookie last season with seven goals and 30 points in 75 games. Sometimes defensemen regress in their second seasons after solid rookie years (examples include Tyler Myers of the Buffalo Sabres and Michael Del Zotto of the New York Rangers) so Gardiner will need to avoid that if the Leafs are to improve.
Only two teams were worse at killing penalties last season than the Leafs, the Columbus Blue Jackets and San Jose Sharks. Burke addressed the issue in free agency by signing forward Jay  McClement, but it will take more than one forward to remedy all of the Leafs' shorthanded problems. When the Leafs fired coach Ron Wilson last season and brought in Carlyle, assistant coach Dave Farrish also came from the Anaheim Ducks to Toronto. The former defenseman worked primarily with the Ducks' penalty-killing units, but they never ranked higher than 19th in his final full three seasons there. Improvement from the Leafs' goaltenders in shorthanded situations couldn’t hurt either. Reimer ranked 75th out of 89 eligible goaltenders in shorthanded save percentage last season at .808. Luongo posted an .870 save percentage in the same category.
Penalty killing wasn't the only way the Leafs were getting burned defensively, they were also one of the worst teams at 5-on-5 too. The Leafs allowed 182 goals at 5-on-5, the second-worst total in the League, and 189 overall at even strength. The Rangers (182), Kings (170) and St. Louis Blues (155) allowed fewer overall goals last season than the Leafs allowed at even strength. With little roster turnover and Reimer still the team's No. 1 goaltender (for now), a defensive turnaround will likely have to stem from a change in philosophy. Kessel rededicated himself defensively last season and will need to continue to do so. In Carlyle's 18 games as coach, the Leafs allowed 61 goals. Some of that had to do with the coach installing a new system midstream, but that won't be an available excuse this season.
 
Burke arrived in November 2008. Toronto was coming off an 83-point season and hasn't eclipsed the 85-point mark or threatened for a playoff spot under Burke's leadership. He's had nearly four years to get the Leafs headed in the right direction, but if his moves do not bear a playoff spot for a fourth straight season, will his job be in jeopardy? The Leafs hold the longest postseason drought in the NHL at seven years, and an eighth year without a series victory would tie the franchise for the fifth-longest stretch in NHL history. Burke reportedly signed a six-year deal when he took the job nearly four years ago. There are no indications his job is on the line heading into this season, but another one that ends without a postseason trip could change that.
Burke was surprisingly quiet during free agency. His only notable signing during the frenzy was center Jay McClement, who left the Colorado Avalanche to sign a two-year, $3 million deal in Toronto. McClement doesn't possess flashy numbers, the 29-year-old had 10 goals in 80 games last season and hasn't had more than 12 in his career, but he has attributes the Leafs need. He was third in the NHL last season among forwards in penalty-killing ice time and will provide leadership while playing bottom-six minutes, as he was an alternate captain in Colorado for four years. He won 51.3 percent of his faceoffs last season. "We like the fact that he's an established third-line guy with skill," Burke told reporters. "He's good on faceoffs and can kill penalties. Last minute of the game when we're protecting the lead, he's going to see the ice. Quiet guy, leads by example. He's not a vocal leader. He was a good addition." Burke also added center Keith Aucoin at the end of July. The 33-year-old forward has been an All-Star at the AHL level six times and will be on a two-way contract with Toronto. The Leafs haven't made a big splash this summer, but senior vice president and director of hockey operations David Nonis said at the time of the McClement signing that trades (perhaps in addition to the van Riemsdyk deal) will likely be how the team improves itself. “For us, we wanted to add to the lineup in the way we wanted,” Nonis told reporters. “But we’ll probably add through the trade route. There’s probably more of a chance of doing that. There’s a lot of things that can happen between now and the start of the season.”
 
Nikolai Kulemin broke out in a big way for the Toronto Maple Leafs two seasons ago. After a 31-point season as a rookie and 36 points in his second season, Kulemin delivered 30 goals and 57 points in 82 games in 2010-11. Last season, Kulemin regressed in every category. He had seven goals and 28 points in 70 games, and as a result, averaged about two fewer minutes per game than he did during his 30-goal campaign. The Leafs decided to put their faith in the 26-year-old this offseason, avoiding arbitration with the 6-foot-1, 225-pound forward by signing him to a two-year, $5.6 million contract. "What happened last year … who knows?" Leafs assistant general manager Claude Loiselle told the Toronto Sun. "Both he and (regular center) Mikhail Grabovski were going into contract years. Sometimes that works and sometimes the pressure gets to you." Grabovski excelled last season with 23 goals and 51 points in 74 games and was rewarded with a five-year, $27.5 million deal he signed in March. The trio of Kulemin, Grabovski and Clarke MacArthur, the team's consistent second line two seasons ago, combined for 80 goals then. While Grabovski and MacArthur remained consistent last season, Kulemin had the worst season of his career statistically. "His production was down, but if you remember, he, Mikhail and Clarke MacArthur were one of the best second lines in the League the year before," Loiselle said. "He hits hard, he’s a soldier, but it didn’t help that Clarke was suspended to start the year (only two games) and they just never got it going." Kulemin had four goals in his first 41 games last season and averaged about a half-shot less per game than he did two seasons ago. He searched for answers throughout, but he never found them. "You’re always thinking about it (not scoring), but I try to avoid (thinking about it) and just play my game," Kulemin told reporters last season. "I don’t change anything in my game. I just try to think about how I can score in the game. "Not scoring happens sometimes. Last year there were breaks. I had bad months to start the season. Then I just figured it out and started scoring and everything was fine." If Kulemin returns to form, it could give the Leafs the depth offensively they've lacked in recent years. Coach Randy Carlyle intends to use newly acquired James van Riemsdyk, a winger during his time with the Flyers, as a center. If Kulemin can rediscover his magic on the second line with Grabovski and MacArthur, and van Riemsdyk centers the top line with Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul, it would allow Carlyle to team Tim Connolly with Tyler Bozak, two offensively gifted players, on the third line. Of course, if Kulemin struggles again, the Leafs will need to shuffle the deck. "Will he score 30 goals again? I don’t know," Leafs director of hockey operations Dave Nonis told reporters. "He is a better offensive player than he showed last year."

There was a strong start, but ultimately more disappointment for the Toronto Maple Leafs last season. After a 9-3-1 beginning, the Leafs slipped from playoff contention with a brutal February and missed the playoffs again. Two years ago, the trio of Clarke MacArthur, Mikhail Grabovski and Nikolai Kulemin was one of the top scoring lines in the NHL. Last season it was Joffrey Lupul, Tyler Bozak and Phil Kessel who piled up the points, while the other three, particularly Kulemin, regressed. The addition of James van Riemsdyk augments what is already a potentially strong forward group, not to mention the possible promotion of some talented prospects. If the Maple Leafs are going to return to the postseason, there is going to have to be improvement from the defense corps and goaltending. James Reimer is a bounce-back candidate in net, but a lot of the focus could be placed on the guys in front of him being better defensively. Coach Randy Carlyle is in his first full season, and he'll be charged with getting the forwards to backcheck more attentively, while hoping a couple of the young defensemen can continue to improve. The goals are likely to be there, as the Leafs have enough depth to cover for another regression or two. How much of an issue preventing them remains will likely determine the outcome of the 2012-13 campaign.

Forwards

Joffrey Lupul - James van Riemsdyk - Phil Kessel

Clarke MacArthur - Mikhail Grabovski - Nikolai Kulemin

Nazem Kadri - Tyler Bozak - Matt Frattin

Matthew Lombardi - Jay McClement - Tim Connolly

David Steckel

Defensemen

Dion Phaneuf - Carl Gunnarsson

Jake Gardiner - Korbinian Holzer

John-Michael Liles - Mike Komisarek

Cody Franson

Goaltenders

James Reimer

Ben Scrivens


NOTES: The two players to watch during training camp are Kadri and Holzer. Toronto's top six looks pretty firm, assuming van Riemsdyk takes to the transition from wing to center. The Maple Leafs would be delighted if Kadri proves he belongs in the lineup as a regular, but it would also be an interesting squeeze. Offense wasn't really a problem last season, so maybe the Leafs stick with the veteran role players who are more defensively oriented, but Kadri and Frattin can boost the team's scoring depth. Even if Kadri isn't ready, Toronto is likely to deploy an expensive fourth line. With Luke Schenn in Philadelphia, there is an opening in the lineup on defense, and Holzer could be the one who claims that spot. If he's not ready, Franson (who is a restricted free agent and still needs to sign) would likely slide in there unless one of the other kids, say Jesse Blacker or Morgan Reilly, has a great camp. If the Leafs don't make a deal for another goaltender there will obviously be a ton of pressure on Reimer. Even average goaltending could make this club a playoff participant. Scrivens is still an RFA and needs a contract.

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